647
FXUS64 KHUN 220612
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
112 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 923 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THAT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, SMALL
HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
EARLIER TODAY HAVE FOR THE MOST PART DISSIPATED. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES REMAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA, THEREFORE WE
WILL KEEP THE LOW CHANCES OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER MILD AND HUMID NIGHT IS IN
STORE AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROP TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
IF SKIES CLEAR OUT, CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY DENSE
FOG NEAR DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING.
ON TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ONCE AGAIN WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S SBCAPE RISES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG
AND DCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THEREFORE, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, SMALL HAIL,
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BASED ON TIMING OF WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE
POSITIONED TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS ALIGNS
WELL WITH THE SPC MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND LINGER SOMEWHERE NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. AS A RESULT, ONE MORE NIGHT
OF WARM CONDITIONS IS FORECAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE NORTHEAST ALABAMA AS A
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CLIPPING PORTIONS OF OUR FAR EAST ZONES WITH A LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FURTHER WEST, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
FINALLY, THURSDAY WILL BE THE FIRST TASTE OF FALL AS THE COOLER
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
A FALL-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SITS UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS. DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, A WEAK
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD
WARM TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AT
THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS WOULD BRING A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER, THIS IS QUITE FAR OUT AND AT THIS TIME THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING. THEREFORE, KEPT THE NBM VERY
LOW CHANCE (5-15%) OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES AT ISSUANCE, BUT VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
HOWEVER, ANTICIPATING THIS CLOUD DECK TO THIN OUT ABOUT 9-10Z,
PAVING THE WAY FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG FORMATION. THIS MAY BRING
REDUCED VIS (MVFR) AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY FOG
WILL THEN LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE GREATEST
SHOWER/STORM PROBABILITIES LOOK TO BE EAST OF I-65. THEREFORE, MSL
MAY ONLY SEE VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR HSV. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
HEAVY RAINFALL (AND THEREFORE, LOWER VIS AND CIGS). EXPECTING
THIS ACTIVITY TO THEN WANE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, WITH LITTLE
TO NO RAIN BY MID-EVENING AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...26
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