668
FXUS64 KHUN 231055
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
555 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 410 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
- THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN
THREATS.
- A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
LATE WEEK. HIGHS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER-MID 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTH ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST ALABAMA IS
ALREADY SOCKED IN, AS WELL AS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO FILL IN OVER THE REST OF NORTH ALABAMA
THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN CURRENT SATELLITE
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY. THESE CLOUDS WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOW LONG THEY
LINGER COULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON AFTERNOON HIGHS - TEMPERATURES MAY
NOT WARM PAST THE LOWER TO MID 80S. IN FACT, SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGEST EVEN COOLER HIGHS, IN THE 70S! THIS WILL BE MONITORED, BUT
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, OUR THINKING FOR THE SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL TODAY
HAS NOT CHANGED. WE WILL BE WATCHING WHERE THE SURFACE TROUGH SETS
UP BECAUSE ITS LOCATION COULD BE A MATTER OF US RECEIVING RAIN
(OVER NE AL) OR NOT MUCH AT ALL (TO OUR SOUTH). EVEN WITH HI-RES
MODELS INDICATING COOLER TEMPERATURES, MOST SHOW A RIBBON OF
SURFACE INSTABILITY GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG OVER THE APPALACHIANS
AND DOWN OVER NE AL. ULTIMATELY, THE LOW RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IS CONDITIONAL, BUT WAS MAINTAINED WHERE SPC OUTLOOKED A
MARGINAL RISK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER NE AL (MAINLY BETWEEN
1-8PM). MAKE SURE TO HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS!
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SATELLITE, RADAR, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PAINT A FAIRLY CLEAR
PICTURE OF THE CURRENT SURFACE FEATURES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
JUST TO OUR SW, CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER CAN BE SEEN ALONG A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST OVERNIGHT. NW OF THIS FEATURE, WINDS HAVE
BACKED TO THE NORTH, BEGINNING OUR INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR.
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, THE SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY NORTH AS SET UP IN NE AL. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A COLD
AIR DAMMING REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH, SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AND INSTABILITY LOOKS
TO DEVELOP IN NE AL. PAIRED WITH LIFT FROM THE TROUGH, THIS WILL
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FOR NE AL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THREATS OF DAMAGING WIND
AND HAIL. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH,
IF THE TROUGH SETS UP SW OF OUR CWA, MOST OF THE AREA COULD REMAIN
DRY. ELSEWHERE, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WITH CAA BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY. AS SUCH,
TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY DAMPEN AND LIFT NORTH. WHILE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST ALONG THIS FEATURE,
SLIGHT GRADIENTS IN TEMPERATURES, DEW POINTS, MAY DEVELOP THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. ALOFT, WE WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN
TROUGHING TO OUR NE AND RIDGING TO OUR SW. THIS WILL PLACE US
SOLIDLY WITHIN NW FLOW, WHICH WILL REINFORCE OUR COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THE MAIN TALKING POINT IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE MONITORING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. ENSEMBLES HAVE THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
REMAINING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST, SUPPORTING DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THESE
SYSTEMS, THE END OF THE LONG TERM COULD BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAINFALL
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES EAST OF OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN RAIN CHANCES,
SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, ALONG
WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE, A GRADUAL WARMING PATTERN WILL BE IN
STORE FOR US. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AGAIN TUESDAY AFTER BEING LIMITED TO THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BE A WELCOMED CHANGE AFTER THE ABOVE NORMAL
PATTERN WE'VE EXPERIENCED THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. DON'T BREAK OUT THE
HOT CHOCOLATE YET- THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY
OCTOBER IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, NO HEAT PRODUCTS
ARE ON THE HORIZON FOR US THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS (DUE TO LOW CIGS) WERE OBSERVED AT
ISSUANCE DUE TO A GROWING LOW STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION.
INSTANCES OF IFR AND LIFR WERE REPORTED AS WELL, MAINLY FOR A FEW
AREAS EAST OF I-65. THIS HAS ALSO HINDERED FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATING THE CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO BREAK UP.
THUS, AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%) OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIST FOR THE HSV TAF SITE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL, BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE TO THE EAST. SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH NO RAIN
OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THAT LOW CIGS TO AT LEAST MVFR
WILL REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS, BUT
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY THEN EASTERLY OVERNIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26/RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...26
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