511
FXUS64 KHUN 231439
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
939 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 410 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
- THERE IS A LOW RISK (<10-20%) FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST
ALABAMA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
LATE WEEK. HIGHS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER-MID 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED IN A NORTH TO SOUTH MANNER ACROSS THE AREA
YESTERDAY EVENING WAS ORIENTED FROM SOUTHERN LOUSIANA EASTWARD TO
THE GA/FL BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY
HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD AND BROUGHT COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA,
MOISTURE IS STILL POOLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA.
CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL AL WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NE
AL THRU THE AFTERNOON.
WE'VE SEEN A FEW SHOWERS BUBBLE UP AND DISSIPATE HERE ALREADY
THIS MORNING, AND ARE EXPECTING A BIT MORE COVERAGE IN THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS AREN'T AS FAVORABLE AS
THE LAST 2 DAYS FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS, BUT IT'S STILL A
NON-ZERO THREAT THIS AFTERNOON, SO RADAR TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.
THE CONVECTION FIRES UP LATER TODAY SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET, WITH A TRANQUIL NIGHT EXPECTED FOR NRN AL AND SRN
MIDDLE TN. MORNING LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
TO START THE DAY TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
THE SETUP FOR TOMORROW IS SIMILAR TO TODAY, MINUS THE MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN NE AL. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
TERRAIN WILL BE MUCH SPOTTIER TOMORROW AND MAY ONLY CLIP VERY FAR
ERN PORTIONS OF JACKSON/DEKALB COUNTIES IN NE AL AND FRANKLIN
COUNTY IN SRN MIDDLE TN. SEVERAL SHORT-TERM MODELS SHOW THE
CONVECTION REMAINING TO OUR E IN SE TN/NRN GA, MISSING US
ENTIRELY.
THE BIGGER STORY FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE THE MUCH
DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND THE LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
INSTEAD OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S THAT WE'VE SUFFERED THROUGH SO
FAR FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER, A REPRIEVE IS ON THE
HORIZON. AFTN HIGHS THU - SAT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S
EAST/MIDDLE 80S WEST (WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY IN FAR NE AL!). MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES EACH DAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S AS WELL, SO BE SURE TO GET OUT AND ENJOY IT!
NO RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST AND A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IS TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF SEPTEMBER.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THE MAIN TALKING POINT IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE MONITORING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. ENSEMBLES HAVE THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
REMAINING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST, SUPPORTING DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THESE
SYSTEMS, THE END OF THE LONG TERM COULD BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAINFALL
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES EAST OF OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN RAIN CHANCES,
SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, ALONG
WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE, A GRADUAL WARMING PATTERN WILL BE IN
STORE FOR US. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AGAIN TUESDAY AFTER BEING LIMITED TO THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BE A WELCOMED CHANGE AFTER THE ABOVE NORMAL
PATTERN WE'VE EXPERIENCED THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. DON'T BREAK OUT THE
HOT CHOCOLATE YET- THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY
OCTOBER IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, NO HEAT PRODUCTS
ARE ON THE HORIZON FOR US THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS (DUE TO LOW CIGS) WERE OBSERVED AT
ISSUANCE DUE TO A GROWING LOW STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION.
INSTANCES OF IFR AND LIFR WERE REPORTED AS WELL, MAINLY FOR A FEW
AREAS EAST OF I-65. THIS HAS ALSO HINDERED FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATING THE CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO BREAK UP.
THUS, AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%) OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIST FOR THE HSV TAF SITE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL, BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE TO THE EAST. SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH NO RAIN
OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THAT LOW CIGS TO AT LEAST MVFR
WILL REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS, BUT
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY THEN EASTERLY OVERNIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB/12
SHORT TERM....RSB/12
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...26
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