117
FXUS64 KHUN 231903
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
203 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1201 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
- A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
LATE WEEK. HIGHS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER-MID 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
LOW ALTITUDE STRATUS WAS SLOWLY ERODING FROM SW-NE ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
STRATUS WAS NOTED FROM WEST OF MONTEAGLE, TO GURLEY, AND ARAB.
EAST OF THE STRATUS, MORE CELLULAR SCATTERED CLOUDS WERE NOTED. A
FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO FORMING IN THIS AIRMASS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND NW GEORGIA. THE STRATUS HAS MADE
A BIG DIFFERENCE REGARDING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF
2 PM, TEMPERATURES OVER NW ALABAMA WERE ONLY AROUND 71 DEGREES,
ABOUT 21 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THAT TIME. IT WAS CLOSE
TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY IN MORE SUNNY NE ALABAMA WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 86 IN SCOTTSBORO.
MESOSCALE MODELS WERE STILL SHOWING SOME CONVECTION FORMING OVER
PORTIONS OF NE ALABAMA AND ADJACENT MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ALTHOUGH A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK HAS BEEN REMOVED, SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT AS WE
GO INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD WIND DOWN AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING. THE COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL SHOW ITS TRUE COLORS TONIGHT, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TUMBLING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S. LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEARING WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF LATE
NIGHT FOG, MAINLY IN FOG FAVORED SPOTS AND IN/NEAR LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE WETTING RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
THE SETUP FOR TOMORROW IS SIMILAR TO TODAY, MINUS THE MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN NE AL. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
TERRAIN WILL BE MUCH SPOTTIER TOMORROW AND MAY ONLY CLIP VERY FAR
ERN PORTIONS OF JACKSON/DEKALB COUNTIES IN NE AL AND FRANKLIN
COUNTY IN SRN MIDDLE TN. SEVERAL SHORT-TERM MODELS SHOW THE
CONVECTION REMAINING TO OUR E IN SE TN/NRN GA, MISSING US
ENTIRELY.
THE BIGGER STORY FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE THE MUCH
DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND THE LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
INSTEAD OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S THAT WE'VE SUFFERED THROUGH SO
FAR FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER, A REPRIEVE IS ON THE
HORIZON. AFTN HIGHS THU - SAT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S
EAST/MIDDLE 80S WEST (WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY IN FAR NE AL!). MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES EACH DAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S AS WELL, SO BE SURE TO GET OUT AND ENJOY IT!
NO RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST AND A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IS TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF SEPTEMBER.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THE MAIN TALKING POINT IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE MONITORING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. ENSEMBLES HAVE THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
REMAINING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST, SUPPORTING DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THESE
SYSTEMS, THE END OF THE LONG TERM COULD BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAINFALL
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES EAST OF OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN RAIN CHANCES,
SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, ALONG
WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE, A GRADUAL WARMING PATTERN WILL BE IN
STORE FOR US. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AGAIN TUESDAY AFTER BEING LIMITED TO THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BE A WELCOMED CHANGE AFTER THE ABOVE NORMAL
PATTERN WE'VE EXPERIENCED THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. DON'T BREAK OUT THE
HOT CHOCOLATE YET- THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY
OCTOBER IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, NO HEAT PRODUCTS
ARE ON THE HORIZON FOR US THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE LINGERING AT BOTH KMSL/KHSV TERMINALS
AT MIDDAY, AND THE TREND IS FOR THEM TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM SW
TO NE THRU THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS. MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS BY THIS POINT, WITH SOME FURTHER
DETERIORATING CIGS BY SUNRISE BACK INTO IFR CATEGORY. CEILING
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 800-1000FT ARE EXPECTED, BUT WITH SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING, SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT THROUGH MIDDAY, GIVING WAY TO MVFR
CONDS (CIGS ~1500-2000FT) BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....12
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...12
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