913
FXUS64 KHUN 240830
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
330 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 330 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
- A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
TO THE WEST AND A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL, MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY (AND ANY STORMS) SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA IN EASTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN
GEORGIA. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF A FEW SHOWERS
MAKING IT INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
OCCURRING AND MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA IS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY
TODAY.
THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS BEEN OVERSPREADING THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING IS, LIKE YESTERDAY,
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. JUST HOW LONG THESE
CLOUDS LAST THIS AFTERNOON IS THE QUESTION. HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN - THE HIGHS AT HSV AND MSL
YESTERDAY ONLY REACHED 77 DEGREES! THUS, BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE
AND THESE TRENDS, MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BY
INCREASING THE SKY COVER AND LOWERING THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
ANTICIPATING HIGHS TO MAX OUT IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST ALABAMA COULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH SOME
SPOTS IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA POTENTIALLY SEEING WARMER HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S.
ENJOY THE PLEASANT WEATHER, AS COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND (SEE MORE BELOW).
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 843 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR US AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES ITS JOURNEY EASTWARD, BRINGING SUBSEQUENT HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
RELATIVELY COOLER TO WHAT WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING LATELY-
REMAINING CAPPED IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
DURING THIS TIME ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ON PAR WITH
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH ARE HIGHS IN THE
LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 843 PM CDT WED SEP
23 2026
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST, MID LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL DAMPEN, KEEPING TROUGHING TO OUR EAST AS THE
PRIMARY INFLUENCE FOR LOCAL WEATHER. THE DAMPENING RIDGE PAIRED
WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN OUR
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID TO
HIGH 80S EACH DAY. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST LOOKS TO ARRIVE
AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM IN THE FORM OF A PASSING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW LOOKS TO INDUCE SOME WEAK
RETURN FLOW WHICH MAY ALLOW US TO BRIEFLY BREAK BACK INTO THE 90S
ON TUESDAY, THIS HOWEVER IS CONTINGENT ON THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THE
FRONT. IF THE FRONT SPEEDS UP, ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT
INCREASES IN RAIN CHANCES MAY KEEP HIGHS ON TUESDAY BELOW 90.
CURRENTLY KEPT BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR RAIN CHANCES, WHICH SUPPORT
THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS BEING ABOUT A WEEK OUT, TIMING AND
IMPACTS FROM THE FRONT ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE, PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR
UPDATES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
A STRATUS CLOUD DECK IS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST,
BRINGING LOWER CIGS (MVFR TO IFR) ALONG WITH IT. EXPECTING THESE
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTH ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. IFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FOR BOTH TERMINALS AROUND
12Z, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY TO MVFR BY MID-MORNING. WE
WILL BE MONITORING HOW LONG THE LOW CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY; BUT, FOR NOW, WE ARE FORECASTING THAT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK UP FROM EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON (VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING).
OTHERWISE, LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY (WILL MAINLY BE TO
OUR NORTHEAST). IN ADDITION, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY BUT REMAIN AROUND 5
KNOTS OR LESS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...26
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