109
FXUS64 KHUN 242254
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
554 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
- NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS SE CANADA WAS RIDGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A NE FLOW ROUNDING THE HIGH AND
A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA WAS SENDING LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE THOUGH UPGLIDING WAS
BEING BROKEN UP BY MIXING COURTESY OF DAYTIME HEATING. THUS SKIES
IN MOST AREAS HAVE SCATTERED OUT, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SO FAR
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH THE START OF AUTUMN
AND LONGER NIGHTS, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY
TO FALL. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD CHILL FROM THE MID 50S SHELTERED
VALLEYS TO THE LOW/MID 60S NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER - THE
COOLEST SINCE EARLY JUNE.
THE MODELS AND MOS OUTPUT TO SOME EXTENT ARE HINTING AT FOG AND/OR
LOW CLOUDS FORMING TONIGHT. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT
SCATTERED LOWER ALTITUDE CLOUDS WILL DO THIS EVENING; ESPECIALLY
IF THEY CLEAR OUT WOULD HELP SET THE STAGE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG. WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS THIS EVENING ON WHAT EVENTUALLY
OCCURS.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
A NOR'EASTER TYPE STORM SYSTEM WAS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE OUTER
BANKS. IT SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD, REMAINING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND.
NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THAT SYSTEM. BUT A NORTHERLY FLOW
ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE, MAKING
FOR A SOMEWHAT COOLER END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. AM EXPECTING
MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ON FRI (WITH THE UPGLIDING PERSISTING). THUS
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. EVEN
COOLER FRI NIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S SHELTERED VALLEYS
TO MID/UPPER 50S NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES, EXPECT HIGHS SAT RANGING IN THE LOW/MID 80S, WITH LOWS SAT
NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 843 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST, MID LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL DAMPEN, KEEPING TROUGHING TO OUR EAST AS THE
PRIMARY INFLUENCE FOR LOCAL WEATHER. THE DAMPENING RIDGE PAIRED
WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN OUR
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID TO
HIGH 80S EACH DAY. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST LOOKS TO ARRIVE
AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM IN THE FORM OF A PASSING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW LOOKS TO INDUCE SOME WEAK
RETURN FLOW WHICH MAY ALLOW US TO BRIEFLY BREAK BACK INTO THE 90S
ON TUESDAY, THIS HOWEVER IS CONTINGENT ON THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THE
FRONT. IF THE FRONT SPEEDS UP, ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT
INCREASES IN RAIN CHANCES MAY KEEP HIGHS ON TUESDAY BELOW 90.
CURRENTLY KEPT BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR RAIN CHANCES, WHICH SUPPORT
THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS BEING ABOUT A WEEK OUT, TIMING AND
IMPACTS FROM THE FRONT ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE, PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR
UPDATES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WHETHER CIGS (VFR) WILL LINGER THIS
EVENING OR WILL BREAK UP. FOR NOW, KEEPING WITH PREDOMINANTLY
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS MUCH OF THE EVENING.
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED ALREADY AT KHSV. MODELS SEEMS TO CONTINUE
THIS TREND AND LARGELY KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BOTH TERMINALS BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z. LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS MAY RETARD THAT DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THUS, DID
NOT TANK VSBYS TO 1 SM OR LESS AROUND DAYBREAK. LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AFTER
18Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...KTW
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