265
FXUS64 KHUN 251034
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
534 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1038 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
- NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SITS UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WITH A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. PART OF
THE SFC TROUGH DOES BACK INTO PORTIONS OF FAR NE AL. AS A RESULT,
CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER IN NE AL A BIT LONGER UNTIL IT SCOURS OUT
BY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY
BRINGING SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR EAST WHERE
CLOUDS LINGER TO LOWER 80S FURTHER WEST.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
IT LOOKS LIKE A BREAK FROM THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER, DRIER AIR WILL ALSO
COUNTER THAT A BIT. LOWS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
WITH CLEARER SKIES IN PLACE.
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, MORE INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A BIT HIGHER DURING THE DAY, DESPITE THE
COOLER/DRIER AIR ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
80 TO 85 DEGREE MARK IN MOST AREAS, EXCEPT MAYBE THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN
PRIMARILY IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE WITH MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
OUR COOLEST NIGHT MAY BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLY FOR LOWS IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND PORTIONS OF NE ALABAMA. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY.
A LARGE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BECOME AN
OPEN WAVE AND BEGIN EJECTING NORTHEAST, ALLOWING A TROUGH AXIS TO
DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON MONDAY. AT THIS POINT, IT
APPEARS TO BE A DRY TROUGH WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A 5H RIDGE
WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF OF
AMERICA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND THEN FURTHER EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BASIN BY THURSDAY. THUS, A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS THAT BEGIN THE WEEK IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S, WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON THE
HANDLING OF A SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LOW EVOLUTION. EVEN SO, THE LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SUGGESTED BY THE NBM MAY BE DUE
MORE TO GENERALIZED MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION DUE TO INCREASED
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH
THE RIDGE AND DELAYS THE SHIFT OF THIS TROUGH EAST, WHICH MAY EQUATE
TO A WARMER SCENARIO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...GH
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