339
FXUS64 KHUN 252305
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
605 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1023 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
- NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT
IN THE TN VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S (5-9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) WITH DEW POINTS DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE GOOD NEWS IS WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE OR DROP TO CALM LEVELS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS AND A GRADUAL
MODERATION, DAILY HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE. HIGHS ON
SAT/SUN SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 80 NE ALABAMA AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, TO LOW/MID 80S ELSEWHERE. NIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT SHOULD
COOL MAINLY IN THE MID 50S, AND LOW/MID 50S SUN NIGHT. HIGHS ON
MON SHOULD RISE MAINLY IN THE MID 80S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE MID WEEK.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
OUR COOLEST NIGHT MAY BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLY FOR LOWS IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND PORTIONS OF NE ALABAMA. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY.
A LARGE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BECOME AN
OPEN WAVE AND BEGIN EJECTING NORTHEAST, ALLOWING A TROUGH AXIS TO
DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON MONDAY. AT THIS POINT, IT
APPEARS TO BE A DRY TROUGH WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A 5H RIDGE
WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF OF
AMERICA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND THEN FURTHER EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BASIN BY THURSDAY. THUS, A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS THAT BEGIN THE WEEK IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S, WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON THE
HANDLING OF A SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LOW EVOLUTION. EVEN SO, THE LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SUGGESTED BY THE NBM MAY BE DUE
MORE TO GENERALIZED MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION DUE TO INCREASED
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH
THE RIDGE AND DELAYS THE SHIFT OF THIS TROUGH EAST, WHICH MAY EQUATE
TO A WARMER SCENARIO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EXPECT
AFTERNOON CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE AND CLEAR SKIES TO BE THE GENERAL
RULE OF THUMB. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, BUT
COOLING MAY BE EFFECTIVE ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY AT BOTH TERMINALS. FOR NOW, ONLY
INTRODUCED MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN FROM THE NNE ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS
AFTER 15Z AS VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
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