290
FXUS64 KHUN 271042
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
542 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 741 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
- A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY YIELDING A MODERATE HEAT RISK IN SOME AREAS.
- LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EXIST LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING ARE IN THE LOWER 50S IN
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN AL. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH, MOST
LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING CLEAR SKIES. WE CONTINUE TO BE POSITIONED
INBETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE
TO OUR WEST OVER THE PLAINS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
REINFORCE THE DRY AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE 80S. LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS BMX SOUNDING AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE IS A VERY DRY LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SFC
THAT WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL MIX DOWN. THEREFORE, DEWPOINTS WERE
BLENDED LOWER THAN THE NBM. THIS WOULD MATCH WELL WITH WHAT
OCCURRED DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 741 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENING TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ALLOWING A
CONTINUES NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRY AIR
SOUTHWARD, SO DESPITE SHORTWAVES DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID
SOUTH AND LOWER MS VALLEY, RAIN IS VERY UNLIKELY DUE TO DRY LOW TO
MID LEVELS. VIRGA WOULD BE THE ONLY ITEM OF NOTE ON SUNDAY
ENTERING NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AL. WILL WATCH TRENDS, BUT KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S, IF NOT UPPER 30S IN SOME
SPOTS DEPENDING ON MIXING. ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH CLOSELY IN FUTURE
UPDATES.
SIMILAR WEATHER WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT (LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S)
AND MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85) AS NORTHEAST FLOW
IN LOW LEVELS KEEPS A DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
40S ONCE AGAIN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MEANDERS EAST INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS ON TUESDAY, BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
MUCH IF ANY CLOUD COVER. THE DRY AIR AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER 8-9H
TEMPS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. DEW POINTS
MAY EDGE JUST A BIT FURTHER INTO THE LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS WITH
A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 741 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION PATTERNS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS UPPER
RIDGING EXPANDS OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
REGION. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY TOWARD THE MID-LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME. IN FACT, HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. THANKFULLY WE WILL BE SPARED FROM A MORE
INTENSE HEAT WAVE THIS TIME WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS
NEAR OR BELOW 70 DEGREES. WITH THAT SAID, AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL
STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S DURING THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME AND COULD
POSE A RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS FOR THOSE ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE
TO HEAT.
THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, BECOMES A
LOT LESS UNCERTAIN AS WE WILL REMAIN IN A WARM, TROPICAL AIRMASS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. THERE ARE STILL FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES AMONGST LONGER RANGE
MODELS REGARDING THE SPEED OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT THAT IS
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE TN VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN MIND,
WE WILL STICK WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE AND MESSAGE INCREASING CHANCES
(30-65%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND. BE SURE TO
CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ESPECIALLY IF PREPARING
FOR OUTDOOR PLANS!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...GH
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