311
FXUS64 KHUN 281037
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
537 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1016 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY YIELDING A MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) IN SOME
AREAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
A COOL START TO THE WORK WEEK AS EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS
UNCHANGED TODAY AS WE SIT BETWEEN THE SFC LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST
AND AN EXPANDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THEREFORE, AFTERNOON HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE ONE CONCERN TODAY IS THE
VERY DRY CONDITIONS LEADING TO AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK. 00Z
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH BNA AND BMX SHOW A VERY DRY LAYER AT AROUND
850MB. AS WE WARM UP DURING THE DAY, THIS DRY LAYER WILL GET MIXED
DOWN CAUSING OUR SFC DEWPOINTS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S
WHICH PUSHES RH VALUES INTO THE 25-30% RANGE. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE LIGHT TODAY SO RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO CENTER MORE OVER THE MS
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY PUSHES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BUT KEEPS THE HIGHER
MOISTURE AT BAY UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY THEN REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN BEING THE HEAT. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT NEAR
90 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY SO WE WILL REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, BUT THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL POSE A RISK FOR HEAT
RELATED ILLNESS FOR THOSE WITHOUT PROPER HYDRATION OR THOSE DOING
STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES OUTDOORS WITHOUT A BREAK. REMEMBER TO NEVER
LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES!
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
THURSDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE HOTTER THAN NORMAL DAY BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY WETTER PATTERN DEVELOPS INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE HOLDING TIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
A SLUGGISH UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. COMPLICATING
THIS PATTERN WILL BE A TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF AMERICA THAT
WILL BE LIFTED NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE GULF
STATES. THIS WILL PRODUCE A STOUT SOUTHERLY TROPICAL FLOW INTO THE
MID SOUTH AND TN VALLEY, YIELDING INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A WIDE AREA. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT WILL HELP THIS REGIME WILL BE
A WEDGE FRONT THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
INTO GA AND PERHAPS FAR NORTHEAST AL, PROVIDING ANOTHER ISENTROPIC
LIFTING SOURCE. THE UPPER LOW FINALLY BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE ON SUNDAY
LIFTING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND ABSORBING THE TUTT INTO THE FLOW
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY. THUS LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST STARTING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
AND INCREASING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH THE TROPICAL FLOW,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY THE
WEEKEND, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO SPECIFY THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK, BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY
BE MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...GH
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