834
FXUS64 KHUN 281543
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1043 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1025 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
- A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY YIELDING A MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) IN SOME
AREAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
A COOL START TO THE DAY EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE SINCE RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S PRIMARILY. MORNING
SOUNDINGS FROM BMX (ESPECIALLY) AND OHX BOTH SHOW DRIER AIR THAT
SHOULD BE TAPPED INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY LATER THIS
MORNING AS WELL (PER BMX SOUNDING). NBM HAS BEEN HANDLING MIXING
DOWN OF MUCH DRIER AIR BADLY THE LAST FEW DAYS AND IT LOOKS LIKE
TODAY IT WILL AS WELL. THOUGH CONSHORT IS LOWER THAN NBM OUTPUT,
EVEN THAT MODEL MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH LOWERING DEWPOINTS THIS
AFTERNOON PER BMX SOUNDING. THUS, DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S, SLIGHTLY ABOVE HRRR GUIDANCE. THIS WILL DROP RH
VALUES TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20% IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE, HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE MOSTLY
WITH SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT.
NBM LOWS LOOK A BIT WARM TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW UPPER 40S TO LINGER ONE MORE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE, A NICE NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, NBM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN TOO
MOIST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. THOUGH SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND A TAD STRONGER, VERY DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL LIKELY LOWER AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SIGNIFICANTLY. TOMORROW
LOOKS A BIT WARMER TOO THAN TODAY, AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD SLIGHTLY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S LOOK REASONABLE.
WITH SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING LATE IN THE EVENING ON TUESDAY,
EXPECT LOWS TO WARM UP A BIT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S PRIMARILY.
THE UPPER RIDGE FURTHER INTENSIFIES OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SUNNY SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED AND SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AS A RESULT. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA WILL LIKELY GIVE US SOME MORE
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD MITIGATE THE MIXING OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND BRING A MORE HUMID AIRMASS BACK INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MAIN
THEME DURING THAT PERIOD IS THE UPPER RIDING STRENGTHENS AND WE
GET HOTTER AGAIN. HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING IT WILL REMAIN HUMID
IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 95 TO
100 DEGREE RANGE IN WARMER LOCATIONS.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PUSHES EAST INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND
WEAKENS. AT THE SAME TIME THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT
EAST OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND FLORIDA. WEAK CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME FORCING OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER, MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH/STRENGTH OF FORCING AND THUS
RESULTANT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY INTO EARLY PORTIONS OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. GIVEN HIGH PWAT
VALUES IF FORCING IS STRONGER, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY COULD BOTH BE
A WASHOUT WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, IF THE DRIER
SOLUTION HOLDS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE MAY BE THE RESULT
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE WASHOUT RESERVED FOR SUNDAY PRIMARILY.
HEAT MAY BE A CONCERN AGAIN ON SATURDAY IF THE DRIER SOLUTION
PANS OUT. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IF SO
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES. THE RAINY
SOLUTION WOULD END UP PROVIDING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY (~LOWER TO MID 80S).
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ON
TUESDAY WILL REMAIN LIGHT, BUT SHIFT AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY
DURING THE DAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
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