111
FXUS64 KHUN 282248
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
548 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1025 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
- A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY YIELDING A MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) IN SOME
AREAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 80 TO 83 DEGREE RANGE. DEWPOINTS
HAVE MIXED INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN MANY AREAS. THIS HAS
LOWERED AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 19 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE AS WELL. LUCKILY, WINDS HAVE REMAINED LIGHT OR LESS
THAN 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE
THE DAY IS OUT AND AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD DROP A BIT MORE. A
FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE A HIGH AROUND 86 DEGREES.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, NBM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN TOO
MOIST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. THOUGH SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND A TAD STRONGER, VERY DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL LIKELY LOWER AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SIGNIFICANTLY. TOMORROW
LOOKS A BIT WARMER TOO THAN TODAY, AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD SLIGHTLY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S LOOK REASONABLE.
WITH SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING LATE IN THE EVENING ON TUESDAY,
EXPECT LOWS TO WARM UP A BIT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S PRIMARILY.
THE UPPER RIDGE FURTHER INTENSIFIES OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SUNNY SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED AND SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AS A RESULT. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA WILL LIKELY GIVE US SOME MORE
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD MITIGATE THE MIXING OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND BRING A MORE HUMID AIRMASS BACK INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MAIN
THEME DURING THAT PERIOD IS THE UPPER RIDING STRENGTHENS AND WE
GET HOTTER AGAIN. HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING IT WILL REMAIN HUMID
IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 95 TO
100 DEGREE RANGE IN WARMER LOCATIONS.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PUSHES EAST INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND
WEAKENS. AT THE SAME TIME THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT
EAST OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND FLORIDA. WEAK CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME FORCING OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER, MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH/STRENGTH OF FORCING AND THUS
RESULTANT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY INTO EARLY PORTIONS OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. GIVEN HIGH PWAT
VALUES IF FORCING IS STRONGER, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY COULD BOTH BE
A WASHOUT WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, IF THE DRIER
SOLUTION HOLDS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE MAY BE THE RESULT
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE WASHOUT RESERVED FOR SUNDAY PRIMARILY.
HEAT MAY BE A CONCERN AGAIN ON SATURDAY IF THE DRIER SOLUTION
PANS OUT. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IF SO
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES. THE RAINY
SOLUTION WOULD END UP PROVIDING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY (~LOWER TO MID 80S).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS WITH LIGHT/VAR WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...25
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