875
FXUS64 KHUN 290831
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
331 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1003 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY YIELDING A MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) IN SOME
AREAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
ANOTHER COOL START TO THE DAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS
MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, TEMPERATURES MAY FALL ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO PRIOR TO SUNRISE. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP
A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING INTO
THE MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. GOOD MIXING THIS AFTERNOON
WILL ONCE AGAIN MIX DOWN A VERY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 850-700MB
BRINGING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 40S. THANKFULLY, WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT KEEPING THE FIRE WEATHER RISK LOW.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE EACH DAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALSO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING HUMIDITY TOWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING
THE HEATRISK BACK INTO A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4). HIGHS WILL
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S. THIS WILL YIELD
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE IS STRONGER. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
WE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HIGHER
AXIS OF MOISTURE REMAINS MORE CONFINED TO THE GULF COASTAL REGION,
BUT WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS
THROUGH THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM, A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE ON OUR
DOORSTEPS. ALOFT, A LONG WAVE THROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AS RIDGING DEPARTS OFF THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL FIND OURSELF
SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST, AND AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL PLACE US SOLIDLY WITHIN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WORK AS A PIPELINE FOR
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF UP INTO THE TN VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, DEW
POINTS LOOK TO RETURN TO THE 70S, WHILE ALOFT, PWATS LOOK TO PUSH
WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY OCTOBER (2"+).
THIS MOISTURE WILL PRIME US FOR A VERY WET WEEKEND. WHAT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN IS HOW MUCH FORCING WILL PRESENT AS THE PARENT
TROUGH LOOKS TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. THIS GIVES US SOME PAUSE WHEN CONSIDERING WEEKEND RAIN
CHANCES. THE CURRENT QUESTION IS IF HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
PROLONGED OVER A WIDE SPREAD AREA OR IF SHOWER AND STORMS WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED CREATING A MORE LOCALIZED CONCERN. KEPT BLENDED
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN
PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF PROLONGED RAIN AND SPEED
IT FALLS. IF THE RAIN FALLS AT A STEADY RATE, LOCAL DRAINAGE MAY BE
ABLE TO HANDLE IT WITH MINIMAL PROBLEMS. IF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP,
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOOD CONCERNS. PLEASE
CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...GH
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