482
FXUS64 KHUN 011724
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1224 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1202 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-80%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE
MAIN CONCERN.
- MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) IN SOME AREAS TODAY AND
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
UNDER SUNNY SKIES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE MID 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. SUNNY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PEAK BETWEEN 91 AND 94 DEGREES.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES TO BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOME LOCATIONS. MAKE SURE TO HYDRATE WELL IF
WORKING OUTDOORS AND TAKE PLENTY OF BREAKS.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
BY FRIDAY, THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
REMAINING OVER THE AREA CHANGES LITTLE. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AT THAT TIME. BETTER
FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THAT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA PRIMARILY. HOWEVER, SOME LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FORCING
WITH COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY. MORNING SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S AGAIN. HOWEVER, CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY HELP TO KEEP HIGHS FROM CLIMBING TO OR ABOVE 93
OR 94 DEGREES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE 95 TO
100 DEGREE RANGE AS DEWPOINT VALUES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN MOST MODEL OUTPUT
AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING
INT SATURDAY. AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF
THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
IMPACTS, MEANING THAT A LOW CHANCE OF FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING
WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY (THANKS TO PWATS NEAR 2").
AS WE MOVE FROM THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY, A SECOND IMPULSE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP TO
INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS STRONGER
FORCING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AND SHOULD SHIFT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY.
SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN IS POSSBILE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD DROP
LOWS INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2026
IN IT'S WAKE, EXPECT A COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS TO MOVE IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
MEAN BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN WEATHER FOR THE FIRST WEEK IN OCTOBER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW
MODELS HINT AT ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG A RE-
ENFORCING COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN ISOLATED CHANCE (~ 20%)
WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHTOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AREA EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 5
KNOTS THIS EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...RAD
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