287
FXUS64 KHUN 050951
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
451 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- DRY, WARM WEATHER, BUT LOWER HUMIDITY, IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS (20-30%) ON SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DROPPED SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER AS A CANOPY OF HIGH
CLOUDS PERSISTS. THESE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
A CLEARING TREND ANTICIPATED AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ADVECT DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
50S ONCE THIS CLEARING TAKES PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS, WITH UPPER
70S ATOP THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A LOW-
AMPLITUDE TROUGH CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, WHILE THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TENDS TO STALL IN THE GULF REGION. WHILE THE
UPR TROUGH WILL HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND IN
THE GRT LAKES, A BROAD SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL TEND TO MAINTAIN A
PRESENCE OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OF AIR
MASSES ACROSS OUR AREA, BOTH WITH A MARITIME AND CONTINENTAL
INFLUENCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES THAN
WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCE IN RECENT DAYS, BUT WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE PRESENT. DEW POINT TEMPS WILL TEND TO
BE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS
WILL STILL MANAGE TO RISE WELL INTO THE 80S BOTH TUE/WED. BEING
LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH FOR EARLY OCTOBER CONTINUES
THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS TO OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD BRING AN EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
THIS WARMTH WILL RESULT IN LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REDUCED
INTO THE MID 20S PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEST OF
I-65. A FORECAST OF LIGHT WINDS SHOULD HELP TEMPER ELEVATED OUTDOOR
FIRE SPREAD RISKS. SIMILAR WARMTH IS FORECAST FRI WITH HIGHS AGAIN
CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S, WITH SIMILAR REDUCED MID AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH THU/FRI NIGHT SHOULD COOL
INTO THE 50S.
A FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW MOISTURE TO OUR
SOUTH MOVING FURTHER NORTHWARD. SOME OF THE MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE
12Z CANADIAN AND 18Z GFS HINT AT A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA, ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH (INCLUDING
THIS REGION) SAT INTO SUN. THE 12Z ECMWF KEPT IT'S TROPICAL ENTITY
MORE OVER THE WESTERN GULF, WITH LESSER MOISTURE IMPACTING THIS
REGION. MANY THINGS COULD OCCUR WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK; SOMETHING THAT'LL CLOSELY BE MONITORED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 451 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
CEILINGS OF 015-025AGL (MVFR) WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST AREAS OF NORTH
AL BY 14Z. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST FLOW OF
5-10KT WILL GUST AT 15-20KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE DIMINISHING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...17
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