210
FXUS64 KHUN 060432
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 905 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
- DRY, WARM WEATHER, WITH LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S AND LOWS SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S.
- AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF MAY APPROACH THE MS/AL/FL
COASTLINE THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING, WITH 9 PM TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM
THE MID 60S VALLEYS TO 72 AT MUSCLE SHOALS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN GREAT LAKES, OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD CHILL INTO THE
UPPER 40S SHELTERED VALLEYS TO AROUND 60 NEAR LARGE BODIES OF
WATER. EXPECT LIGHT NE WINDS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A LIGHT
BREEZE WITH 3-5 DEGREES OF T/TD SEPARATION, THUS FOG DEVELOPMENT
IS UNLIKELY.
EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY ON TUE, AS HIGH PRESSURE
MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME SE 4-8 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
DRY WEATHER WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK. HIGHS ON WED SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S, AND
THU FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50
SHELTERED VALLEYS TO UPPER 50S NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER.
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NW AND NORTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA THU AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP
TEMPER OVERALL OUTDOOR FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WILL OFFER MORE OF THE SAME AS WE
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE FORECAST
BECOMES MUCH MORE TROUBLED.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME ATTENTION SHIFTS TO WHAT IS
CURRENTLY INVEST 92L IN THE GULF OF AMERICA. OVER THE LAST 24 HOUR
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEGUN PRODUCING
SOLUTIONS THAT SPIN INVEST 92L INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM AND PUSH IT
NORTH TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. WHEN TAKING A DEEPER DIVE IN THE
ENSEMBLES, THE KEY DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS APPEARS TO BE THE
EVOLUTION OF A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH TX FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE SHORT WAVE ALLOWS IT TO PHASE
WELL WITH INVEST 92L AND SURGES THE SYSTEM NORTH. A SLOWER SOLUTION
KEEPS THE INVEST 92L SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LESS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION. SOMEWHAT OBVIOUSLY, THE FIRST PRESENTED
SOLUTIONS WOULD BE OF GREATER CONCERN TO OUR LOCAL AREA. NONETHELESS,
IT IS MUCH MUCH TOO SOON TO LOOK INTO ANY SPECIFICS SHOULD INVEST
92L TAKE A NORTHWARD PATH. RATHER, WE WILL BE MONITORING THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TO ASSESS THE PROBABILITY OF THE TWO
FEATURES PHASING.
FOR NOW, KEPT BLENDED GUIDANCE THAT GRADUALLY BRING GULF MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA AND INCREASES RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
FORECAST STILL BRINGS 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN AREA WIDE SO AT MINIMUM WE
ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING AT A DREARY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
VFR FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. NORTHEAST FLOW OF
5-10KT WILL BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST AFTER 14Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...17
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