551
FXUS64 KHUN 060708
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
208 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 905 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
- DRY, WARM WEATHER, WITH LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S AND LOWS SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S.
- AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF MAY APPROACH THE MS/AL/FL
COASTLINE THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST TODAY KEEPING A DRY FLOW OF AIR INTO THE TN VALLEY
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 80S ALONG AND WEST
OF I-65, WITH LOWER 80S FURTHER EAST (UPPER 70S ATOP THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU).
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
DRY WEATHER WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK. HIGHS ON WED SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S, AND
THU FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50
SHELTERED VALLEYS TO UPPER 50S NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER.
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NW AND NORTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA THU AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP
TEMPER OVERALL OUTDOOR FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WILL OFFER MORE OF THE SAME AS WE
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE FORECAST
BECOMES MUCH MORE TROUBLED.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME ATTENTION SHIFTS TO WHAT IS
CURRENTLY INVEST 92L IN THE GULF OF AMERICA. OVER THE LAST 24 HOUR
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEGUN PRODUCING
SOLUTIONS THAT SPIN INVEST 92L INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM AND PUSH IT
NORTH TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. WHEN TAKING A DEEPER DIVE IN THE
ENSEMBLES, THE KEY DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS APPEARS TO BE THE
EVOLUTION OF A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH TX FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE SHORT WAVE ALLOWS IT TO PHASE
WELL WITH INVEST 92L AND SURGES THE SYSTEM NORTH. A SLOWER SOLUTION
KEEPS THE INVEST 92L SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LESS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION. SOMEWHAT OBVIOUSLY, THE FIRST PRESENTED
SOLUTIONS WOULD BE OF GREATER CONCERN TO OUR LOCAL AREA. NONETHELESS,
IT IS MUCH MUCH TOO SOON TO LOOK INTO ANY SPECIFICS SHOULD INVEST
92L TAKE A NORTHWARD PATH. RATHER, WE WILL BE MONITORING THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TO ASSESS THE PROBABILITY OF THE TWO
FEATURES PHASING.
FOR NOW, KEPT BLENDED GUIDANCE THAT GRADUALLY BRING GULF MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA AND INCREASES RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
FORECAST STILL BRINGS 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN AREA WIDE SO AT MINIMUM WE
ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING AT A DREARY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
VFR FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. NORTHEAST FLOW OF
5-10KT WILL BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST AFTER 14Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...17
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