560
FXUS64 KHUN 061648
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1148 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1039 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
- DRY, WARM WEATHER WITH LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S AND
LOWS SHOULD COOL TO THE MID/UPPER 50S.
- AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF MAY APPROACH THE MS/AL/FL
COASTLINE THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE, DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. UNDER CLEAR SKIES, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON (WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN OUR NW AREAS). TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES
COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (WITH HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL).
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
A RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REINFORCING DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE RISING INTO THE 80S (WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS
POTENTIALLY HITTING 90 ON THURSDAY) UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S. A PATTERN SHIFT IS AHEAD
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF.
MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM BELOW.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WILL OFFER MORE OF THE SAME AS WE
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE FORECAST
BECOMES MUCH MORE TROUBLED.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME ATTENTION SHIFTS TO WHAT IS
CURRENTLY INVEST 92L IN THE GULF OF AMERICA. OVER THE LAST 24 HOUR
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEGUN PRODUCING
SOLUTIONS THAT SPIN INVEST 92L INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM AND PUSH IT
NORTH TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. WHEN TAKING A DEEPER DIVE IN THE
ENSEMBLES, THE KEY DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS APPEARS TO BE THE
EVOLUTION OF A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH TX FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE SHORT WAVE ALLOWS IT TO PHASE
WELL WITH INVEST 92L AND SURGES THE SYSTEM NORTH. A SLOWER SOLUTION
KEEPS THE INVEST 92L SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LESS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION. SOMEWHAT OBVIOUSLY, THE FIRST PRESENTED
SOLUTIONS WOULD BE OF GREATER CONCERN TO OUR LOCAL AREA. NONETHELESS,
IT IS MUCH MUCH TOO SOON TO LOOK INTO ANY SPECIFICS SHOULD INVEST
92L TAKE A NORTHWARD PATH. RATHER, WE WILL BE MONITORING THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TO ASSESS THE PROBABILITY OF THE TWO
FEATURES PHASING.
FOR NOW, KEPT BLENDED GUIDANCE THAT GRADUALLY BRING GULF MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA AND INCREASES RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
FORECAST STILL BRINGS 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN AREA WIDE SO AT MINIMUM WE
ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING AT A DREARY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...HC
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