869
FXUS64 KHUN 080223
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
923 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 922 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
- TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS HAS FORMED OVER THE GULF AND IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT MAKES LANDFALL FRIDAY
NIGHT NEAR THE AL/FL COASTLINE. ISAIAS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
NORTHWARD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF IMPACTFUL GUSTY WINDS AND A LOW RISK OF FLOODING TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AGAIN TONIGHT, IT WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THIS DRY AIR MASS. THE COMBINATION OF A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL AMPLIFY AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN A CLEAR, SUNNY SKY AND DRY CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND AT LEAST 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS
HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE DRY AIR MASS AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN STILL
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A FEW DEGREES HIGHER, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
A BIG TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER TEXAS AND BEGINS TO PIVOT NNE/NE TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MEANWHILE, A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF OF FLORIDA
WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY, BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE POSITION AND MAGNITUDE OF THESE FEATURES
WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TRACK OF ISAIAS AS IT CURVES NORTH TOWARD
THE MS/AL/FL COASTLINE LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THOUGH NO IMPACTS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
FRIDAY (SAVE FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER), THIS WILL
QUICKLY CHANGE OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 HOURS.
ISAIAS IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AND MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR THE AL/FL BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER, IT SHOULD
QUICKLY ACCELERATE NORTHWARD DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD
QUICKLY ERODE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS. HOWEVER, THE
STRONG GRADIENT WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
PUSHES NNE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. GUSTY WINDS WELL WITHIN THE 30-40
MPH RANGE SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND DEPENDING ON WERE THE CENTER OF THE
REMNANT INNER CORE OF ISAIAS GOES, SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH WOULD BE ON THE TABLE. A WIND ADVISORY SEEMS LIKELY DURING
THIS WINDOW. THESE WINDS, ESPECIALLY WITH WET SOILS, WOULD LIKELY
LEAD TO DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMEFRAME.
WITH ISAIAS MAKING LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF GUIDANCE, THIS
WOULD PLACE THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITHIN A DEVELOPING DRY SLOT AS
THE SYSTEM GOES EXTRATROPICAL, LIMITING THE RAINFALL THREAT
SOMEWHAT. ADDITIONALLY, AT LEAST FOR NOW, IT APPEARS THAT ANY
TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE CONFINED WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
THINK THAT 1.5" TO 3" OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE COMMON, BUT
THE QUICKER PACE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE AS WELL AS ITS TRACK
WILL RESULT IN A LOWER, MORE LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT. STILL, RISES
ON RIVERS, CREEKS, AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EVEN WITH THESE
MORE MODEST RAINFALL TOTALS AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR
CLOSELY.
IN SUMMARY, RESIDENTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD BE AWARE
AND PREPARED FOR A POTENTIALLY WINDY/RAINY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND STAY TUNED AND UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION -- ESPECIALLY IF THEY HAVE TRAVEL PLANS THIS WEEKEND!
BE PREPARED FOR POWER OUTAGES AND MAKE SURE YOU HAVE YOUR EMERGENCY
KITS/SUPPLIES READY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR MID OCTOBER. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
DRY CONDITIONS HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROP INTO THE 50S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....AMP.24
AVIATION...AMP.24
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