769
FXUS64 KHUN 100735
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
235 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 235 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY, BRINGING HIGH CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40-60 MPH, A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR FLASH
FLOODING, AND A VERY LOW, CONDITIONAL CHANCE OF TORNADOES
THROUGH TONIGHT.
- A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST AL THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR REMAINING COUNTIES THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY.
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE DAY -- EXITING BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. AS OF THE 06Z INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER, ISAIAS HAS BEEN DESIGNATED AS POST TROPICAL AS
ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND AND MERGER WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED ANY SEMBLANCE OF TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
HOWEVER, DO NOT LET THIS FOOL YOU. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND EXPANDED WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS GRADIENT (NON-
THUNDERSTORM) WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND INTO MOST
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SYSTEM AND ITS REMNANT CENTER
SHIFTS NORTH.
UNDERNEATH THE STRATIFORM RAIN BANDS MOVING IN, WE'RE ALREADY
SEEING WIND GUST OBS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. A GLANCE AT OBS FURTHER SOUTH AND
THE STRONG WIND FIELD PROJECTED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
GUSTS IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE WILL DEVELOP IN THE 09Z TO 18Z
TIMEFRAME, WITH PERHAPS SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. OUR HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THESE
HIGHER GUSTS REACHING THE SURFACE WILL ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND HAVE A HIGH WIND WARNING IN THESE
LOCATIONS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE, A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SAME TIMEFRAME. THESE WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE
EXPECTED. TRAVEL MAY ALSO BE DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. IF YOU CAN STAY AT HOME, DO SO.
REGARDING THE RAINFALL ASPECT, WOULD EXPECT THE BROAD AREA OF
STRATIFORM RAINFALL TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD AND IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, ONLY
SPORATIC, LIGHTER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FOR THE MOST PART AS THE
DRY SLOT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS ALABAMA. THIS WILL SHUNT THE
HEAVIER, MORE CONVECTIVE TROPICAL RAINBANDS FURTHER EAST OVER
GEORGIA. HOWEVER, SEVERAL HOURS OF STRATIFORM RAIN FROM A
DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL STILL ADD UP TO AROUND 1.5" TO 3"
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS (WITH MOST OF IT LIKELY
OCCURRING IN THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS). LOCATIONS MOST SUSCEPIBLE FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS -- OR WHERE A MORE "ENHANCED" BAND CAN ROTATE OVER FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7
AM SUNDAY TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED, FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
WITH ISAIAS HAVING TAKEN A MORE EASTERN TRACK (WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN ALABAMA), THE PROSPECTS FOR A BAND OF
ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS BEING ABLE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON APPEARS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AND MORE FOCUSED TO
OUR EAST. THUS, ANY TORNADO THREAT APPEARS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT CAMS ARE HINTING AT A BAND OF SHOWERS
FORMING OVER FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA AROUND 21Z NEAR PEAK HEATING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AT THIS TIME INDICATE EXTREMELY MEAGER CAPE
PROFILES, BUT AS IS THE CASE WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS THERE IS PLENTY
OF DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR DEPICTED IN THE HODOGRAPHS.
THEREFORE, WILL MESSAGE A VERY LOW, CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT
THROUGH THIS EVENING -- FROM SPINNING SHOWERS AND/OR A VERY LOW-
TOPPED STORM OR TWO.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THE WIND FIELD WILL BE WEAKENING SATURDAY. THIS MAY WEAKEN BELOW
CRITERIA BY THE EVENING HOURS, ENDING THE NEED FOR ANY CONTINUED
WIND PRODUCTS SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO HIGH RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT (THOUGH INTENSITY
LOOKS MUCH LIGHTER).
THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ON SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND SW WEST VIRGINIA BY
THEN. MANY MODELS SHOW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE
SURFACE LOW INTO OUR NE ALABAMA OR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
COUNTIES TROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.
LATER IN THE DAY, UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS SHOULD BRING SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. MORNING PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP HIGHS ON THE COOL SIDE, ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S. EXPECT THE COOLEST CONDITIONS EAST OF I-65, WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BREAK UP THE LATEST IN THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST NEAR THE
AL/MS BORDER EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT, LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THE UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE SUNNY SKIES AND BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MAKES SOME
SLIGHT PROGRESS PUSHING EAST INTO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND. HOWEVER, OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE REMAIN STOUT. HOWEVER, ENOUGH
FORCING ALOFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DOES SETUP OVER MUCH OF
TENNESSEE TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THAT AREA. OUR
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME LOW END
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT CONSISTENCY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. MOST GUIDANCE DOES PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TO TO
THE AREA THAT IS MORE SEASONABLE INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS ALABAMA AND INTO (AND THROUGH) THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY GUSTY WINDS (BETWEEN
30-40 KTS) OUT OF THE ENE TO ESE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS AT
TIMES, ALONG WITH LLWS OF 50-60 KTS AT 2 KFT. ADDITIONALLY, A
BROAD AREA OF RA/+RA WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY, RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS BELOW 500 FT TO 1000 FT. AWWS MAY
BE NEEDED IF THUNDER DEVELOPS AT EITHER SITE, BUT THE PROBABILITY
IS LOW.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR ALZ001>005.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR ALZ006>010-016.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...AMP
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