588
FXUS64 KHUN 101905
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
205 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 205 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY, BRINGING MEDIUM CHANCES FOR GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 40-50 MPH.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW RAINFALL RATES AND CONFIDENCE
DROPPING IN ANY FLOODING CONCERNS, WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD
WATCH EARLIER TODAY. IN ADDITION, WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER OVER
THE LOCAL AREA AND A WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA,
EXPECTING ANY STORMS TO BE CONCENTRATED WELL TO OUR EAST IN THE
WARM SECTOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. HI-RES GUIDANCE TENDS TO
AGREE WITH THIS THINKING AS WELL. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE STORM
POTENTIAL BEING VERY LOW FOR OUR AREA, WRAP AROUND SHOWERS FROM
WHAT'S LEFT OF ISAIAS WILL KEEP LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. CHANCES THEN TAPER OUT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
AS FOR WINDS, THESE HAVE BEEN A BIT LACKLUSTER SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. OBSERVED GUSTS OVER
THE LOCAL AREA PEAKED BETWEEN 30-40 MPH AT BEST A FEW HOURS AGO
(PROMPTING US TO DOWNGRADE THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO A WIND
ADVISORY), BUT THESE HAVE SINCE FURTHER DECREASED. WIND GUSTS
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 20-30 MPH AT MOST AT THE MOMENT, WHICH IS
BELOW EVEN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE WILL BE MONITORING THIS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF WE SHOULD CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY
EARLY. FOR NOW, IT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 912 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WITH WHAT'S LEFT OF ISAIAS (THAT HAS/IS MERGING INTO THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW/TROUGH) LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY, EXPECT
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS (LOW CHANCES, 10-30%) ESPECIALLY
FOR NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. HOWEVER, BY SUNDAY
EVENING, DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES
INTO THE REGION AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
WHILE SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 MPH MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WINDS REALLY DROP OFF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH UPPER RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH BY MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM THE 70S THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THE UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE SUNNY SKIES AND BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MAKES SOME
SLIGHT PROGRESS PUSHING EAST INTO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND. HOWEVER, OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE REMAIN STOUT. HOWEVER, ENOUGH
FORCING ALOFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DOES SETUP OVER MUCH OF
TENNESSEE TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THAT AREA. OUR
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME LOW END
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT CONSISTENCY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. MOST GUIDANCE DOES PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TO TO
THE AREA THAT IS MORE SEASONABLE INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT ISSUANCE, ALONG WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS FOR BOTH TERMINALS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASE TO LOW
TO MEDIUM TONIGHT (20-50%) FROM WRAP AROUND SHOWERS FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ISAIAS. CHANCES THEN DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND LOWER VIS TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30-35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AND SHIFT TO
BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
MORNING ON SUNDAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...26
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