117
FXUS64 KHUN 102354
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
654 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 205 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY, BRINGING MEDIUM CHANCES FOR GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 40-50 MPH.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW RAINFALL RATES AND CONFIDENCE
DROPPING IN ANY FLOODING CONCERNS, WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD
WATCH EARLIER TODAY. IN ADDITION, WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER OVER
THE LOCAL AREA AND A WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA,
EXPECTING ANY STORMS TO BE CONCENTRATED WELL TO OUR EAST IN THE
WARM SECTOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. HI-RES GUIDANCE TENDS TO
AGREE WITH THIS THINKING AS WELL. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE STORM
POTENTIAL BEING VERY LOW FOR OUR AREA, WRAP AROUND SHOWERS FROM
WHAT'S LEFT OF ISAIAS WILL KEEP LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. CHANCES THEN TAPER OUT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
AS FOR WINDS, THESE HAVE BEEN A BIT LACKLUSTER SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. OBSERVED GUSTS OVER
THE LOCAL AREA PEAKED BETWEEN 30-40 MPH AT BEST A FEW HOURS AGO
(PROMPTING US TO DOWNGRADE THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO A WIND
ADVISORY), BUT THESE HAVE SINCE FURTHER DECREASED. WIND GUSTS
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 20-30 MPH AT MOST AT THE MOMENT, WHICH IS
BELOW EVEN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE WILL BE MONITORING THIS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF WE SHOULD CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY
EARLY. FOR NOW, IT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 912 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WITH WHAT'S LEFT OF ISAIAS (THAT HAS/IS MERGING INTO THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW/TROUGH) LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY, EXPECT
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS (LOW CHANCES, 10-30%) ESPECIALLY
FOR NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. HOWEVER, BY SUNDAY
EVENING, DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES
INTO THE REGION AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
WHILE SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 MPH MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WINDS REALLY DROP OFF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH UPPER RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH BY MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM THE 70S THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THE UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE SUNNY SKIES AND BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MAKES SOME
SLIGHT PROGRESS PUSHING EAST INTO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND. HOWEVER, OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE REMAIN STOUT. HOWEVER, ENOUGH
FORCING ALOFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DOES SETUP OVER MUCH OF
TENNESSEE TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THAT AREA. OUR
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME LOW END
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT CONSISTENCY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. MOST GUIDANCE DOES PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TO TO
THE AREA THAT IS MORE SEASONABLE INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
INCLEMENT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT, AS THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE SYSTEM, WILL KEEP IFR/MVFR CIGS
IN PLACE, WITH TEMPO REDUCTIONS OF CIGS AND/OR VSBY AS WEAK BANDS
OF SHOWERS TRAVERSE THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME WESTERLY, THEN FROM THE SW-W ON SUN AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS
ACROSS EASTERN TN. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS CIG/VSBY IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY SUN AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY RETURNS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE SUN MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH WESTERLY
WINDS OF 5-10KT, AT TIMES HIGHER IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...RSB
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