254
FXUS64 KHUN 120047
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
747 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 913 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- LIGHT DRIZZLE CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN
NE AL.
- LOW CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
BEFORE FALL WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS NOW JUST PUSHED EAST OF THE
HUNTSVILLE METRO AREA. TEMPERATURES TO ITS WEST HAVE CLIMBED INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S AND SHOULD WARM ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES
BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING. FURTHER EAST, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ARE HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH THE BULK OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE NOW ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SITS THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH A PRONOUNCED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AS SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, SPINNING OVER TN/KY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OR LOW CLOUD COVER. AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST LATER TODAY, CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST, WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ALREADY IN NE MS AS OF
9AM. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 70S ALONG
AND WEST OF I-65 AND ONLY THE LOWER 70S FURTHER EAST WHERE CLOUDS
LINGER A BIT LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
BY TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. GIVEN THE MOIST SFC CONDITIONS, TONIGHT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG. WHILE IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG
WILL BE, IF YOU DO ENCOUNTER ANY OUT DRIVING, TAKE IT SLOW DUE TO
THE REDUCED VISIBILITY.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE AS WE START
OFF THE NEW WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE, EXPECT TRANQUIL AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THROUGH MID WEEK, WHICH IS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EACH NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD IS HOW MUCH DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. IF INCREASED MIXING OCCURS THIS WOULD SET UP A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR AN ELEVATED FIRE WX RISK. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN LIGHT AND WELL BELOW ANY FIRE WX CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING ANOTHER TASTE OF FALL-LIKE WEATHER
BY THIS WEEKEND. WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS WE
ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
ON FRIDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO ITS SOUTH. DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT, NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, AN AIRMASS CHANGE BEGINS TO OCCUR WITH NW FLOW ADVECTING
IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. WE WILL START TO FEEL THIS
CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL TRULY FEEL
LIKE FALL AS TEMPERATURES WARM ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 747 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WINDS AS OF 00Z ARE STILL AT 4 KNOTS AT BOTH
KHSV AND KMSL. HOWEVER, WOULD EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
OR CALM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS, A GOOD SETUP FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT (MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF BEING DENSE) WILL BE IN
PLACE. FOR THIS ISSUANCE LOWERED VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR AFTER 6Z. THEN
REDUCED VSBYS TO 2SM WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW BETWEEN 8Z AND
12Z. VSBYS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED EITHER BEFORE OR AT NEXT
ISSUANCE TIME FOR THIS PRODUCT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
AGAIN AFTER 15Z ON MONDAY. WIND FROM THE WEST AROUND 5 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...KTW
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