000
FXUS64 KHUN 131718
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1218 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1033 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
MORE FALL-LIKE WEATHER EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
- MINOR TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) HEAT IMPACTS MAY BE OBSERVED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TN
VALLEY, DRY AND WARM WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
IN FACT, FORECAST HIGHS ARE SLATED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES. THIS MAY RESULT IN RECORD HIGHS BEING MET OR
BROKEN TODAY. THE RECORD HIGH FOR HUNTSVILLE TODAY IS CURRENTLY 89
DEGREES WHICH WAS SET IN 1954, AND THE RECORD FOR MSL TODAY IS 91
DEGREES WHICH WAS SET IN 1963. ULTIMATELY, PLEASE REMEMBER HEAT
SAFETY BY DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKING BREAKS IN THE SHADE
IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS OR WORK OUTSIDE. THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
WILL THEN CONTINUE TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SOME SPOTS OVER NW AL MAY BE A BIT WARMER,
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK; HOWEVER, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE
SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE THEN SHOWS
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER ARKANSAS, MISSISSIPPI AND INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM BRUSHING ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF ALABAMA DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE
HEAT AS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES CONTINUES
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY WARM AS WELL, WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S. NWS HEATRISK INDICATES A MINOR TO MODERATE RISK
OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS BOTH DAYS. THUS, MAKE SURE TO STAY
HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE!
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES WITH
THIS FEATURE, BUT SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER MAY ACCOMPANY IT AS IT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE OBSERVED ON FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS THAT WILL ADVECT INTO
THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY (THE TRANSITION DAY) WILL
RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY (HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S), BUT A STRONG PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT
AS LOWS WILL DROP LIKE A ROCK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS AUTUMN-LIKE AIR MASS WILL TAKE HOLD ON
SATURDAY AS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY AND
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY (WITH LOWS IN THE 40S). AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE AS
HIGHS RETURN TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...26
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