588
FXUS64 KHUN 140238
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
938 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 938 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
MORE FALL-LIKE WEATHER EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
- MINOR TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) HEAT IMPACTS MAY BE OBSERVED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE
CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT (OVER THE SOUTHERN
LOWER-48 AND ALONG THE SE COAST RESPECTIVELY) WAS CONTROLLING OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE UPPER RIDGING ALONG WITH WARMER AIR HAS
PRODUCED UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THUS FAR. THIS HAD RESULTED IN TWO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SET,
WITH MUSCLE SHOALS 91, TYING A PREVIOUS RECORD LAST SET IN 1963,
AND HUNTSVILLE AT 90, BEATING THE OLD RECORD OF 89/1954. AREA
TEMPERATURES AS OF 9 PM HAVE COOLED INTO THE LOW/MID 70S WITH
LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S (WITH MID/UPPER 60S FAR NW ALABAMA).
ANOTHER VERY WARM, TO HOT DAY IS FORECAST FOR THE MIDWEEK, AS
HIGHS SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. CURRENT STANDING
RECORD HIGHS OF 90/1940 MUSCLE SHOALS, AND 89/1928 HUNTSVILLE, DO
STAND A REASONABLE CHANCE OF BEING TIED OR EXCEEDED. 925MB
TEMPERATURES OF 22-24C TODAY SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN TOMORROW, WITH A
SW FLOW HELPING IN THAT REGARDS. MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED, WITH NEARLY UNLIMITED SUNSHINE ADDING TO THE EFFECT.
AN ITEM OF INTEREST IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FRONT
RANGE WED, AND THEN NE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES FRI. BIG QUESTIONS
REMAIN ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST WILL SHOWERS PRECEDING THE FRONT
ADVANCE. NEW MODEL DATA COMING IN DO SHOW SOME CONVECTION MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH DURING THE COURSE OF WED
AFTERNOON. THEY APPARENTLY COULD REACH FAR NW ALABAMA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE EVAPORATING TREND SHOWN BY
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE, WILL STAY ON THE DRIER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FAR AS
RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
COOL TO MILD CONDITIONS WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
ONE LAST VERY WARM TO HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ON THU, WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES AGAIN AROUND 22-23C. THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. A STANDING RECORD HIGH OF
88/1947 HUNTSVILLE COULD BE EXCEEDED, WHILE 91/2015 MUSCLE SHOALS
WILL BE GIVEN A CHALLENGE. ONE LAST COOL/MILD NIGHT THU NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
THE WARM SPELL WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT END LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI,
AS THE AFORMENTIONED COLD FRONT FINALLY SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.
TIMING OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS IT PASSING FRI MORNING. A MARKED
SEPARATION BETWEEN A MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST, AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR A
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL VEER FROM
SW TO THE NNW AT 15-25 MPH AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON
FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S WEST, TO NEAR 80 EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY COOL FRI AFTERNOON, WITH READINGS DOWN
INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AT DUSK.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS ON FRIDAY AND PIVOT INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS FEATURE, WITH A STRONG PUSH OF COOL, DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE. THIS CAN BE SEEN WITH TEMPERATURES AS THEY
WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY NIGHT, EVENTUALLY SETTLING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
BREEZY POST FRONTAL WINDS OUT OF THE NNE WILL REINFORCE THIS AIR
MASS AS HIGHS WILL BE VERY NOTABLY LOWER ON SATURDAY AND ONLY PEAK
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, AND LOWS AGAIN DROPPING TO THE 40S.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNDAY AND VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO MODIFY THE AIR
MASS INITIALLY AS HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY PEAK IN THE MID/UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. RIDGING REALLY BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND,
THANKS TO AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE TAF, AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE SE COAST BRINGS A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. SHOWERS
PRECEDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST, ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON WED. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE TAF.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....AMP.24
AVIATION...RSB
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