388
FXUS64 KHUN 151543
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1043 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1043 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH MORE RECORD
SETTING WARMTH, AND MINOR TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) HEAT IMPACTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
- COLDER CONDITIONS RETURNING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PRODUCE A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS
WARM FLOW, ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THE AFTERNOON, WILL
RESULT IN ONE LAST DAY OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. HIGHS AGAIN SHOULD
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. STANDING RECORD HIGH TODAY
IN HUNTSVILLE OF 88 SET IN 1924, 1938 AND 1947 WILL PROBABLY FALL,
AND THE RECORD AT MUSCLE SHOALS OF 91/2015 WILL BE CHALLENGED.
GIVEN 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 22-24C DO SUPPORT HIGHS TO THE LOWER
90S. WE SHOULD HAVE MILD NIGHT ONE LAST TIME, WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S.
WITH THE VERY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS FALLING WILL
PRODUCE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN INTO THE MID 30S PERCENT
RANGE ACROSS NW ALABAMA. EVEN IF THEY FALL LOWER, LIGHT SW WINDS
SHOULD HELP PRECLUDE SERIOUS OUTDOOR FIRE SPREAD AND GROWTH. THAT
SAID, OUTDOOR FIRES COULD OCCUR GIVEN DRY FINE FUELS (GRASSES,
SMALL BRANCHES) ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THE WARM SPELL THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING AS OF LATE WILL COME
TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING, AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN NW-SE MANNER
ACROSS THE VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED (WITH
MOST OF THE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WELL TO OUR NORTH AND NE), THUS
AM EXPECTING A "DRY" FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEWER OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF
WAS HINTING AT LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR FRI AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD BE FELT AS SW WINDS WILL
BECOME NW, INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NW ALABAMA WHERE THE COOL AIR
ARRIVES EARLIER, TO AROUND 80 OVER THE EASTERN AREAS WHERE IT
ARRIVE LATER.
WHAT COULD BE CALLED "BLUSTERY" CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
AS TEMPERATURES FALL. TEMPERATURES IN THE EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE
ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S, BUT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S BY THE
LATE EVENING. A STIFF NW-N FLOW OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
WILL MAKE FOR UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR THOSE PARTICIPATING IN
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE COLDER TREND WILL CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES SAT, WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO THE LOWER 60S. NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARDS THE EARLY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BY SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE SITUATED OVER THE
MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS COLD ANTICYCLONE BRINGING A
N-NE FLOW ACROSS THE GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. NIGHT TIME LOWS BY SUN MORNING SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES TO
THE LOW/MID 40S NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING MAINLY 38 DEGREES OVER LINCOLN AND MOORE COUNTIES. UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, WE CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPERATURES FALLING
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES OR SO, WHICH WOULD BRING A FROST RISK. THIS
IS SOMETHING WE WILL MONITOR.
THE START OF A NEW WEEK SHOULD FEATURE SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN THEY WERE SAT, RISING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME E-SE IN THE
AFTERNOON. NOT AS COLD SUN NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS MON SHOULD RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, WITH LOWS MON NIGHT MID 40S TO AROUND 50. THE
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO THE MIDWEEK. UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS ON TUE SHOULD GET CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMS INTO
THE LOW/MID 70S, AND INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WED. LOWS TUE
NIGHT AGAIN SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...RAD
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