168
FXUS64 KHUN 160244
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
944 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 944 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AFTER A COLD
FRONT BRINGS LOW CHANCES (10-15%) OF SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THE MAIN TALKING POINT IN THE NEAR TERM IS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STEMMING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING
THE SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ACCOMPANYING THIS, A 50 KT LLJ WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 20-30 MPH ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
WHILE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MOSTLY DRY, CAMS HAVE HINTED AT
A VERY LOW CHANCE (15% OR LESS) OF SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND EAST OF I-65. HOWEVER, WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE VIRGA THAN
SHOWERS AS A DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE CONTINUES TO EXIST TOWARD THE
SURFACE. IF SHOWERS DO FORM, NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY REMAIN VERY WEAK. BE SURE TO SECURE
ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS IF YOU HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO!
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED IN THE 70S THROUGH
MOST OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 40S AFTER
THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
FUNNELS IN. THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND GUSTS AND OVERALL DRY AIR MASS WILL
PREVENT ANY RISK OF FOG FORMATION. SATURDAY WILL BRING CONTINUED
GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WE'VE
BEEN EXPERIENCING- KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 60S. SATURDAY NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AND WINDS
SHOULD LIGHTEN BACK INTO THE 5-10 MPH RANGE. FROST IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED, BUT WILL BE MONITORED IN FUTURE UPDATES. BE
SURE TO DRESS IN LAYERS THIS WEEKEND IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS!
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY PUSHES EAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY THEN INTO THE 80S ON
THURSDAY. WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE WEEK AND CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS, IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE FALL COMPARED TO THE RECORD
BREAKING HEAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF SHOWERS FORM NEAR
EITHER SITE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS IS THE
TAF PACKAGE. ADDITIONALLY, WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP EARLY FRIDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-25 KTS FROM THE NW. BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD,
WIND SHEAR LOOKS LIKELY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE ADDED IN A FUTURE
UPDATE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...HC
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