646
FXUS64 KHUN 160746
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
246 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 246 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AFTER A COLD
FRONT BRINGS LOW CHANCES (10-20%) OF SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
CLEAR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE STILL IN
CONTROL AND JUST SOME LOCALIZED, PATCHY FOG NOTED ALONG THE PAINT
ROCK AND FLINT RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WILL CHANGE LATER TODAY AS A
STOUT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
AMPLIFY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MAIN
IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS THANKS TO
A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW TO NORTH
IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN
15-25 MPH WILL HELP TO ADVECT IN A NOTABLY COOLER, DRIER AIR
MASS. THIS CAN BE SEEN WITH THE TEMPERATURE SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH MID TO UPPER 70S FORECAST WEST OF I-65 AND LOWER 80S
EAST OF I-65. DENSE CLOUD COVER AND SOME VIRGA WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH THE FORCING FROM THE FRONT
LIKELY GENERATING SOME VERY LOW (10-20%) CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
LATER TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 40S AFTER
THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
FUNNELS IN. THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND GUSTS AND OVERALL DRY AIR MASS WILL
PREVENT ANY RISK OF FOG FORMATION. SATURDAY WILL BRING CONTINUED
GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WE'VE
BEEN EXPERIENCING- KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 60S. SATURDAY NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AND WINDS
SHOULD LIGHTEN BACK INTO THE 5-10 MPH RANGE. FROST IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED, BUT WILL BE MONITORED IN FUTURE UPDATES. BE
SURE TO DRESS IN LAYERS THIS WEEKEND IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS!
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY PUSHES EAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY THEN INTO THE 80S ON
THURSDAY. WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE WEEK AND CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS, IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE FALL COMPARED TO THE RECORD
BREAKING HEAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUD COVER AND STRONG, GUSTY NW WINDS IN
ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH FROM THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP
LATE IN THE PERIOD, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...AMP
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