768
FXUS64 KHUN 162351
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
651 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
TODAY, BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION (THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING).
- NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH (WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH) WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
- PATCHY FROST MAY OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN A FEW WIND-
SHELTERED LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN TN AND NORTHEAST AL.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO NEAR TERM FORECAST REASONING SINCE
THE UPDATE EARLIER THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, AND SHOULD EXIT OUR CWFA BY 22Z (IF NOT SOONER).
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND NNW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH (WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH) WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD,
ALTHOUGH BOTH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF POCKETS OF LIGHT STRATIFORM FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING, AND WE WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO POPS AT THIS TIME
(ESPECIALLY AS A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING).
OVERNIGHT LOWS APPEAR ON TRACK TO REACH THE M-U 40S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH
(CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST) WILL RETREAT
EASTWARD AS AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
IN RESPONSE TO THIS, A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
QC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL MAKE
STEADY SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
TODAY, AND AFTER ENTERING NORTHWEST AL ~14Z SHOULD EXIT OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY ~22Z. IN SPITE OF LIMITED INSTABILITY
(WITH ENSEMBLE MUCAPE LESS THAN 100 J/KG), SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD EXIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE AXIS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THIN LINE OF LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION. AS
MID-LEVEL WSW FLOW INCREASES TO 70-80 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
APPROACHING 500-MB WAVE, ONE OR MORE BANDS OF LIGHT STRATIFORM
RAIN MAY ALSO EVOLVE WITHIN THE POSTFRONTAL AIRMASS, AND WE HAVE
MADE A MINOR INCREASE IN POPS REGION-WIDE WITHIN THE 21-3Z
TIMEFRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT, SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER SHARPLY TO NNW AND STRENGTHEN, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH (PERHAPS
25-30 MPH IN A FEW LOCATIONS) ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN
TO ADVECT A COOLER/DRIER MIXTURE OF CANADIAN AND MODIFIED NORTH
PACIFIC AIR INTO THE REGION, WITH DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES DEPENDENT
OF TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE (AND RELATED CAA/INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER).
ALTHOUGH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING (IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWFA) WILL LIKELY END BY 3Z, FAVORABLY ORIENTED
LOW-LEVEL STREAMLINES MAY CONTINUE TO GENERATE A FEW
ORAGRAPHICALLY-INDUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THROUGH SUNRISE TOMORROW. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
WIDESPREAD STRATUS CLOUDS AND A MODERATE NNW WIND, OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M-U 40S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH (POSITIONED TO THE
IMMEDIATE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD) IS PREDICTED TO EVOLVE INTO A WEAK LOW THAT WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE NC COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT BECOMES
DETACHED FROM THE POLAR WESTERLIES. AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION (IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE), STRONG NNW FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT, AND DUE TO THE DRY NATURE OF THE
AIRMASS AND ABSENCE OF ATMOSPHERIC LIFT, WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL (IN THE WAKE OF ANY LINGERING WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING).
IN THE LOW-LEVELS, A SURFACE HIGH WILL MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY ON
SATURDAY (AND INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY
NIGHT). THIS CONFIGURATION WILL RESULT IN NNE WINDS (OF SIMILAR
MAGNITUDE TO TODAY) ON SATURDAY, WITH FLOW DIMINISHING AND VEERING
TO ENE SATURDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SUNNY SKIES, AFTERNOON HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE M-U 50S IN ELEVATED TERRAIN TO THE
L-M 60S IN THE VALLEY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY OPTIMAL CONDITIONS
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE
U30S-L40S (AWAY FROM LARGE WATER SOURCES). IF WINDS BECOME CALM
(WHICH IS UNLIKELY BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED PRESSURE GRADIENT),
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY NARROW TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FROST IN
A FEW WIND-SHELTERED LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN TN/NORTHEAST AL
(WHERE TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE MID 30S).
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, A LINGERING SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT EASTERLY-CALM WIND ACROSS THE
REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE
M-U 60S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY MORNING ONCE AGAIN IN THE
M30S-L40S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY PUSHES EAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY THEN INTO THE 80S
ON THURSDAY. WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE WEEK AND
CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS, IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE FALL COMPARED TO THE
RECORD BREAKING HEAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MID
LEVEL STRATUS DECK FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THE BACK EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK CAN BE SEEN MOVING INTO NW AL
CURRENTLY. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING BEHIND THIS,
ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NECESSARY TO ACCOUNT FOR SATELLITE TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, AND
WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE NEAR THE KMSL TERMINAL TONIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 35-40KTS AT 2KFT FOR KMSL
THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25
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