000
FXUS64 KHUN 181634
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1134 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1122 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE A
WARMING TREND TAKES SHAPE EARLY TO MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY UNDERNEATH A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. 7 AM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY DRY IN PLACE ALOFT THAT WOULD BE REACHED AS
OUR TEMPERATURES NEARED 60 DEGREES AND HIGHER. WE ARE SEEING THIS
IN AREA OBSERVATIONS, WHICH HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
IN MANY AREAS ALREADY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS PROCESS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS, DROPPING AFTERNOON
RH VALUES TO BETWEEN 22 AND 28 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS. EASTERLY
WINDS OF 10 GUSTING TO 20 MPH AT TIMES SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMMON
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY.
A WEDGE FRONT SETTING UP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM
OFF THE EAST COAST AND PUSHING WSW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH MAY BRIEFLY ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB SLIGHTLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EVEN DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED BEHIND IT INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION OR CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DRIER AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE WEDGE FRONT.
HOWEVER, THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY INCREASE 925 MB WINDS FROM THE ENE
TONIGHT MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD KEEP WINDS
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS (1000 TO 2000 FEET) TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN LOW
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY MORNING. LUCKILY WITH SUCH DRY AIR
(DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S) BEING ADVECTED INTO
THE AREA IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, FROST OR FOG IS NOT EXPECTED EVEN IN
LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS (WHERE WINDS COULD DECOUPLE AND BECOME
LIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON MONDAY).
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND
TO OCCUR. HIGHS BY MONDAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH
LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY HIGHS
SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP EAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES,
BUT WILL RETROGRADE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
BRIEFLY. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL PUSH
BACK INTO THE AREA.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST
BACK INTO THE AREA, BUT WE WILL STILL BE IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO LARGELY MAINTAIN
ITS HOLD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL, WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE FROM SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND PROXIMITY OF UPPER RIDGING, THE CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS DEVOID OF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS AROUND 4 OR 5 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
EVENING INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS ON MONDAY. THIS AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP FOG AT
BAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 5 KNOTS INTO THE DAY
ON MONDAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
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