883
FXUS64 KHUN 201044
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
544 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1006 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
- NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. FOG CONTINUES TO LOOK
EVEN LESS LIKELY AS NONE HAS FORMED THUS FAR DUE TO DRY AIR OVER
THE TN VALLEY. HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
70S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SUBSIDENCE FROM UPPER RIDGING (CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS)
AS WELL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF
THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEAR TERM (AND BEYOND, DISCUSSED
BELOW). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SOME MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS (SEEN TO OUR WEST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
VIA NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY) SWING OVER THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS PERHAPS
A LOW CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CURRENTLY, LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. HOWEVER,
MANY HI-RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT DEW POINTS WILL DIP LOWER
THAN THIS (INTO THE 30S), INCREASING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. THIS
WILL BE MONITORED, BUT WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
AS FOR TUESDAY, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. DEW POINTS FROM THE BLENDED GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT
HIGH ONCE AGAIN, WITH MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS DEW
POINTS SOMEWHERE IN THE MID 30 TO LOWER 40 DEGREE RANGE.
THEREFORE, ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THESE TRENDS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 20 TO MID 30 PERCENT RANGE; HOWEVER, WITH LIGHT WINDS,
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL NOT BE A CONCERN.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO MEXICO WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS THE
LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEAKENS, THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST
COAST LOOKS TO AMPLIFY; HOWEVER, THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY AS WELL. THINKING THAT THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL WIN
OUT FOR OUR AREA (COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE). THUS, NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. NO
RAIN, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME. ENJOY THE PLEASANT
WEATHER!
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
A MEAN TROUGH POSITION IN SOME FASHION WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CONUS AS AN ANTICYCLONE AND RIDGE SHIFT EAST INTO THE MS
AND OH VALLEYS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS AS WELL WITH A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE GULF STATES.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A NEAR STATUS QUO FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
AND LITTLE DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE CHANGES. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S IN VALLEY AREAS AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
ATOP THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT,
VARIABLE WINDS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...HC
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