563
FXUS64 KHUN 211553
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1053 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1052 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
- NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
THERE AREN'T GOING TO BE ANY MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION. IT IS GOING TO BE PLEASANT OUTSIDE FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH DAILY LOW RH VALUES RANGING
FROM 24% NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO 29-32% SOUTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. SURFACE WINDS ARE GOING TO BE LIGHT ACROSS OUR
AREA, REMAINING BELOW 5 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 7 KTS. MOVING INTO
TONIGHT IT'S GOING TO BE BRISK WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO PERSIST TOMORROW AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS GOING TO BE BROAD NW/N FLOW ALOFT AS A RIDGE
THAT IS BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST INTO OUR AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL KEEP US IN THE PATTERN OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S, AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO HIGH
40S WITH A LACK OF PRECIPITATION. SURFACE WINDS ARE GOING TO REMAIN
LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
THE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS A
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS
FORECAST BIAS LENDS ITSELF TOWARDS COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN
REALIZED IN THIS TYPE OF SETUP. HOWEVER, COOLER/DRIER AIR FROM THE
EAST VIA A DECAYING WEDGE FRONT COULD TEMPER HIGHS TOWARDS
CURRENT GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE LOWER 70S ON
SUNDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
LOWS WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WEDGE
FRONT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE
OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE. AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES EASTWARD INTO PORTION OF NEBRASKA, REALLY STARTS TO DE-
AMPLIFY NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MIXING
OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY. THIS COULD PUSH
AFTERNOON RH VALUES CLOSE TO OR BELOW 25% IN SOME AREAS.
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALSO SHIFTS EAST ON MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE EFFECTS OF THE WEDGE FRONT. HIGHS COULD
BE A BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE MONDAY BECAUSE OF THIS. CURRENT
GUIDANCE IS FOREASTING HIGHS REMAINING BETWEEN 70 ADN 75 DEGREES.
HIGHER TEMPERATURES BASED ON UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES A BIT HIGHER INTO THE MID 70S AT LEAST. WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE DURING THE
DAY. THIS COULD PUSH AFTERNOON RH VALUES CLOSE 25% IN SOME AREAS.
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
MODELS REALLY SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE WELL SOUTH INTO THE GULF
OF AMERICA. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE EASTERN
GULF OF AMERICA AND WSW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A
WARMUP. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
VERY ISOLATED FOG/VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS HAS DEVELOPED AT KHSV THIS
MORNING, ALLOWING IFR CONDITIONS TO BE ADDED AS A TEMPO WITH 2SM
VISIBILITIES. THIS FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT,
VARIABLE WINDS. AT KMSL, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS AS WELL.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...EE
SHORT TERM....EE
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...HC
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