670
FXUS64 KHUN 211805
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
105 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1052 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
- NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID 70S IN MANY AREAS ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT 1 PM. SUNNY
SKIES CONTINUE AND MIXING OF DIRER AIR TO THE SURFACE (NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER/NEAR & WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR) HAS
BECOME EVIDENT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS IN OBSERVATIONS. DEWPOINTS
HAVE DROPPED TO BETWEEN 35 AND 41 DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.
LUCKILY, WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 6 MPH TODAY. EXPECT MIXING TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS HIGHS REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE
23 TO 29 PERCENT RANGE BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM,
ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS NEAR LARGER BODIES OF
WATER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO PERSIST TOMORROW AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS GOING TO BE BROAD NW/N FLOW ALOFT AS A RIDGE
THAT IS BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST INTO OUR AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL KEEP US IN THE PATTERN OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S, AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO HIGH
40S WITH A LACK OF PRECIPITATION. SURFACE WINDS ARE GOING TO REMAIN
LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
THE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS A
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS
FORECAST BIAS LENDS ITSELF TOWARDS COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN
REALIZED IN THIS TYPE OF SETUP. HOWEVER, COOLER/DRIER AIR FROM THE
EAST VIA A DECAYING WEDGE FRONT COULD TEMPER HIGHS TOWARDS
CURRENT GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE LOWER 70S ON
SUNDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
LOWS WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WEDGE
FRONT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE
OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE. AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES EASTWARD INTO PORTION OF NEBRASKA, REALLY STARTS TO DE-
AMPLIFY NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MIXING
OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY. THIS COULD PUSH
AFTERNOON RH VALUES CLOSE TO OR BELOW 25% IN SOME AREAS.
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALSO SHIFTS EAST ON MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE EFFECTS OF THE WEDGE FRONT. HIGHS COULD
BE A BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE MONDAY BECAUSE OF THIS. CURRENT
GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING HIGHS REMAINING BETWEEN 70 AND 75
DEGREES. HIGHER TEMPERATURES BASED ON UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES A BIT HIGHER INTO THE MID 70S AT LEAST. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE DURING
THE DAY. THIS COULD PUSH AFTERNOON RH VALUES CLOSE 25% IN SOME
AREAS.
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
MODELS REALLY SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE WELL SOUTH INTO THE GULF
OF AMERICA. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE EASTERN
GULF OF AMERICA AND WSW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A
WARMUP. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....EE
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
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