779
FXUS64 KHUN 240502
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1202 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1007 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
- AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 25-35% RANGE EACH OF THE
NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS, CREATING THE NEED FOR EXTRA CAUTION
REGARDING OPEN OUTDOOR FLAMES.
NEAR TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, THE CENTER OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHWEST
GULF COAST THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD FROM THE HIGH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. DUE TO THIS
CONFIGURATION, NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR CWFA, SUPPORTING DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT (WITH A MINOR INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF CIRROFORM
CLOUDS TOMORROW). AT THE SURFACE, A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE
(INITIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QC) WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES, RESULTING IN SURFACE PRESSURE RISES
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AS THIS OCCURS,
LIGHT ESE FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO SSE TOMORROW MORNING, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE L-M
40S (OUTLYING AREAS) TO U40S-L50S (URBAN LOCATIONS AND NEAR LARGE
BODIES OF WATER), WITH BRIEF DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO SUNRISE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE L-M 70S, AND WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN INTO
THE U30S-L40S, RH SHOULD FALL INTO THE 25-35% RANGE.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
OVER THE COURSE OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, AN INTENSIFYING
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL EJECT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM MB INTO
THE LABRADOR SEA, RESULTING IN GRADUAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO OUR WEST. AS THIS OCCURS, NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE BACKING TO WNW ON
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT (ALLOWING FOR A MORE NOTABLE INCREASE IN THE
COVERAGE OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD). AT THE SURFACE,
WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH (INITIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES) AS IT WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN A COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS THAT WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER IN THE WAKE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE L-M 70S FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE L-M
40S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
STILL BE INTACT EARLY IN THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK A SERIES OF MID TO
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MIDWEST, DISTURBING THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT SEEMS TO HOLD UP ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
KEEP ANY RAINFALL CHANCES OUT OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A BUMP IN
CLOUD COVER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES
THROUGH. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAYS OCCURRING ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 40S WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOWER 50S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALONG WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. CALM TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AND RANGE BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS BY MID-MORNING ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL THEN SLACKEN, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...26
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