579
FXUS64 KHUN 250755
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
255 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1010 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
- AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 25-35% RANGE EACH OF
THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS (MAINLY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND NW ALABAMA), CREATING THE NEED FOR EXTRA CAUTION
REGARDING OUTDOOR BURNING.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES NEEDED. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S WITH CALM TO LIGHT WINDS. NOT ANTICIPATING THAT LOWS
WILL TO DIP TOO MUCH COOLER BEYOND THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE
NEXT HANDFUL OF HOURS. HAVEN'T SEEN MUCH FOG FORMATION VIA
SATELLITE IMAGERY OR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS YET TONIGHT, BUT THERE
STILL REMAINS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS,
SHELTERED LOCATIONS, AND NEXT TO BODIES OF WATER THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING.
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS UNCHANGED AS WELL. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION, MODEL GUIDANCE (AND RECENT TRENDS)
INDICATE THAT DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER (IN THE 40S) FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
30-40% RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCATIONS TO DIP FURTHER INTO THE 25-35% RANGE. WITH LIGHT WINDS,
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET; BUT, REGARDLESS, PLEASE EXERCISE
CAUTION WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
A SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. 925 MB TEMPERATURES AGAIN DON'T LOOK
MUCH HIGHER, DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
MAY AGAIN BE THE CULPRIT. THUS, KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70 TO 75
DEGREE RANGE AGAIN. DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY, A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW CONSHORT, BUT AFTERNOON MIXING DOES NOT LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE.
BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND IS CENTERED CLOSER TO THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES, ALLOWING HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AGAIN. AFTERNOON MIXING MAY BE A BIT MORE POTENT
BY THEN, BUT TOO FAR OUT TO LOWER THAT MUCH YET IN THE GRIDS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
THE RIDGE WILL TEMPORAILY FLATTEN ON WEDNESDAY AS A DRY FRONT
RIPPLES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH/OHIO VALLEY, BRINGING SOME CLOUD COVER
TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE, NO
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AND SOME LIMITED HEATING WILL STILL PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 70S. NO AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT (SAVE FOR A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR). IN FACT, A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AMPLIFIES NORTHWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND WINDS VEER TO THE SE/SSE. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY AND THE LOWER 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CALM TO LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
5-10 KNOTS BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. WINDS LOOKS TO THEN SHIFT TO BE
NORTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN BY THE EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...26
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