646
FXUS64 KHUN 270135
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
835 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 835 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
- MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 835 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
ANOTHER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL SET UP TONIGHT LEADING TO
ANOTHER NIGHT OF A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT AMONG TEMPERATURES. AT THE
SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WHILE ELEVATED
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE HIGH 40S TO LOW 50S. WHILE WINDS
WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT, EXPECTED CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT
WILL DISSUADE FOG FORMATION.
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WILL KEEP
THE PROFILE DRY AND MITIGATE RAIN CHANCES, A DAMPENING SHORT WAVE
TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL PROMPT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO FILTER IN
THROUGH THE DAY. THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID
TO HIGH 70S.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 835 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
THE AFORMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO PASS TO OUR
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY BRINING WITH IT MUCH HEAVIER CLOUD COVER. WHILE
THE PROFILE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NO RAIN CHANCES, MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PLAGUE THE TN VALLEY AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID
70S.
POST SHORTWAVE, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE
ZONAL WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING. UNFORTUNATELY THERE
WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN OUR INFLUENTIAL SURFACE FEATURES.
THIS WILL MEAN MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
COOL CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT AND WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 835 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS THE TN
VALLEY SITS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
RESULT IN TROPICAL AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A SECONDARY LOW MAY FORM
ACROSS THE OZARKS/MID MS RIVER VALLEY THAT WOULD ENHANCE SYNOPTIC
LIFT CLOSER TO HOME AND WOULD BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
HALLOWEEN. FOR NOW WE WILL STICK WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE, BRINGING LOW
TO MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCES FOR RAIN BEGINNING HALLOWEEN AFTERNOON AND
INCREASING OVERNIGHT, AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME,
LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ON SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO
BE SHORT LIVED, AS ANOTHER AND POTENTIALLY MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM SITS
JUST BEYOND THE DAY 7 PERIOD AND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SINCE THIS IS BEYOND THE
7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME, WE WILL HOLD ON FOR BETTER
FORECAST CONSISTENCY BUT FEEL IT WILL BEAR WATCHING AS IT MAY IMPACT
ELECTION DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE DURATION
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...RAD
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