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FXUS63 KICT 221630
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1030 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS MORNING.
- NEXT RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD THROUGH MONDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY ONWARDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 500MB UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS THIS
MORNING SHOWS THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKATING QUICKLY ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SPINNING OFF
THE WESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
CLOSER TO HOME, PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE ARE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH CLOUDS CLEARING IN THE VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING INTO NORTHERN KANSAS THIS MORNING.
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WET GROUNDS ARE LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-70 ARE ALREADY REPORTING VISIBILITIES UNDER A
QUARTER OF A MILE, SO CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 THIS MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY, AND LOW CLOUDS & FOG SHOULD
CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE
RELATIVELY CHILLY START THIS MORNING, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. MEANWHILE, THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY, THE CUTOFF LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL BEGIN
TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND IS SET TO ARRIVE LATE ON SUNDAY
BRINGING THE CENTRAL PLAINS' NEXT RAIN CHANCES.
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY'S RAINFALL EVENT, BROAD SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LARGE SWATH OF
LIGHT RAINFALL PROGRESSING ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION,
THE BEST FORCING COULD GOALPOST THE FORECAST AREA LEAVING THE BETTER
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA, AND ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. SOME OF THE MODERATE RAINFALL COULD SNEAK INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS LEADING TO BETTER RAINFALL TOTALS IN THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL THROUGH, RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO
BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY, A
DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO SETTLE IN AND LINGER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY
WILL SUPPORT USHERING IN THIS AIRMASS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY.
THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MIXED THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE
ON TUESDAY, BUT GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH UP TO 40 KNOTS AT 850 MB. ALL THIS TO SAY, TUESDAY COULD BE A
BIT BREEZIER THAN WHAT THE CURRENT NBM RUN SUGGESTS. WITH THIS
COOLER AIR MASS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE
40S AND 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
IFR/LIFR CIGS CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND ARE
SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST. KCNU SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE HOURS OF
LOW CIGS BEFORE CLEARING OUT. CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND
SATURATED LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY SUN
MORNING, WITH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE SEEING THE
BEST CHANCE AT MORE THAN PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH 2SM
AT KICT-KCNU STARTING AT 11Z TO GET THE BALL ROLLING, BUT
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THEY ARE LOWERED WITH LATER FORECASTS.
ALSO INSERTED SOME 3-4SM AT KHUT-KSLN EARLY SUN MORNING WHERE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE, BUT
MOISTURE MAY NOT BE AS DEEP.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...RBL
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