846
FXUS63 KICT 250939
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
339 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
- A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO SETTLE IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WILL LINGER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
- NEXT SYSTEM TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON'S
FIRST WINTRY PRECIPITATION?
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
LINGERING AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE SYSTEM THAT IMPACTED THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FINALLY EXITS THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME
SIGNS ON SATELLITE THAT LOW CLOUDS, DRIZZLE, AND FOG ARE BEGINNING
TO CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE GRADUAL UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND IT
WILL BE FAIRLY WINDY ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS COULD SEE WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH BETWEEN NOON AND 6PM TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY, THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADVECT A DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION, AND THIS AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG SIGNAL FROM MID-TO-LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE REGION'S NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
THE SEASON'S FIRST SNOWFALL. UNFORTUNATELY, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SEE-
SAWING BACK AND FORTH OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, SO CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND HASN'T INCREASED. HOPEFULLY SOME
CONSISTENCY CAN MATERIALIZED OVER THE COMING DAYS. THAT BEING
SAID, A COUPLE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS APPEAR POSSIBLE. THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW COULD TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO SURGE
NORTHWARD AND MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD LIKELY SEE MOSTLY RAINFALL.
THE OTHER SCENARIO POINTS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR THIS
WEEKEND'S SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR MUCH COLDER AIR TO SURGE
SOUTHWARD WHILE AMPLE MOISTURE IS STILL ALLOWED TO OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION. THE LATTER SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. CURRENTLY, IT'S STILL A BIT
TOO FAR OUT TO NAIL DOWN THE DETAILS AT THIS TIME, BUT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THE FIRST WINTER WEATHER EVENT OF THE
SEASON THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT WITH DRIER AIR
RACES SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE DRIER AIR WILL
CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS, HOWEVER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...CDJ
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