401
FXUS63 KICT 261802
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1202 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TODAY. SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT.
- NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY AND WILL BRING
MUCH COLDER AIR AND POTENTIALLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
STOUT NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING.
AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MEANWHILE, A RIPPLE IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH SYNOPTIC ASCENT FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MOISTURE AT THE MID-LEVELS,
ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LIFT, WOULD TYPICALLY SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE VERY DRY, AND
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY
EVAPORATE/SUBLIMATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE. STILL,
FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES END OVERNIGHT, AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION WILL MOVE INTO THE PNW
LATE ON THURSDAY, AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. WITH STOUT UPPER FLOW OVER
THE ROCKIES, PRESSURE FALLS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS A
RESULT. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING IN PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY; HOWEVER, QPF MAY BE ON THE LOWER
SIDE AS THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE QUICK TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD.
ADDITIONALLY, THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DETERMINE
WHO, IF ANYONE, SEES WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS & NEBRASKA WOULD SUPPORT
MOSTLY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF WINDOW OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION,
MOST LIKELY SNOW, ON SATURDAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT ABOUT THE IDEA OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING; HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL
QUESTIONS ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE EVENT.
REGARDLESS, GIVEN LOW QPF AND WARM GROUND TEMPS, ANY IMPACTS
FROM POTENTIAL WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL.
AFTER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, EYES WILL BE LOOKING WESTWARD AGAIN AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DIVE FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALONG WITH THE
OUTSIDE POTENTIAL OF A ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM COULD END UP BEING JUST A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH FOR
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
SUNDAY/MONDAY'S SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24-HR PERIOD.
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING
WHERE WE COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES
WITH MINIMAL OR NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...MWM
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