727
FXUS63 KICT 262329
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
529 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH
SOME LOW IMPACTFUL LIGHT SNOW MIXING-IN AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES.
- HIGHS ON SUNDAY AROUND 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAXES
STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING.
- LIGHT SNOW CHANCES RETURN FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER LOW MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE IS A WEAK MID/UPPER PERTURBATION EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST WY/NORTHEAST CO.
A FEW SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS WE GET
SOME WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WEAK MID/UPPER WAVE.
ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE SFC TO 800MB
LAYER WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIP TO JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT FLURRIES.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS FOR THU INTO THU NIGHT
AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THANKSGIVING, WITH MAXES AROUND 50 DEGREES. BY THU
NIGHT, OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE PLAINS WILL BE DIGGING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL BE TRACKING INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY FRI NIGHT. CHANCES ARE HIGH THAT WE WILL START TO SEE
SOME WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY FRI EVENING WITH SOUTHEAST
KS HAVING THE HIGHER CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINING ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN AN OPEN WAVE ON SAT AS IT
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE SHORTWAVE
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE MORE IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER STAYING NORTH
AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL LOOKING FOR THE
ARCTIC FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z SAT. WHILE IT'S
POSSIBLE WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIX-IN WITH THE RAIN ON SAT
AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KS, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER, WE COULD SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION IN
VIS GIVEN STRONG NORTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NEAR I-70.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE MAIN STORY WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE
OUR FIRST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OF THE SEASON. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND
10 DEGREES OVER CENTRAL KS TO AROUND 20 OVER SOUTHEAST KS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT WITH HIGHS SUN NOT MAKING IT ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO STAY IN PLACE, WITH ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE TRACKING
OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY
MON MORNING. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY
BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA,
MAINLY FOR THE LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON TIME FRAME. THE AIRMASS
IN PLACE WOULD BE SO COLD THAT ANY PRECIP DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WOULD BE ALL SNOW. THIS WILL BE A TIME PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON
WITH LATER FORECASTS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
A BATCH OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WILL BE MOVING NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THIS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION / MID LEVEL CLOUDS WON'T CAUSE TOO MANY ISSUES
BUT AIRCRAFT ICING IS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TOMORROW MORNING AND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
RETURN.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...WI
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