541
FXUS63 KICT 280459
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1059 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE
AT SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVER CENTRAL KS. STRONG
NORTH WINDS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING.
- SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW ROTATING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHING
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH
THE PLAINS.
UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AND BY EARLY FRI EVENING
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY INCREASING 850-
700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WILL RAMP-UP RAIN CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS BY EARLY FRI EVENING. BY 12Z SAT,
SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST OK WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM FAR NORTHEAST KS THROUGH WESTERN KS.
THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING, ALL SNOW CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO
AREAS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IA AND NORTHERN MO. SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY
TACK EAST AND BY 18Z SAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN MO. THE GFS
HAS THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE NAM AND OTHER SHORT TERM
MODELS. HOWEVER, THE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW PLACEMENT SHOULDN'T HAVE
TOO MUCH OF AN AFFECT ON THE FORECAST. AS COLDER AIR SPILLS SOUTH
SAT, SOME OF THE PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN KS MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW, OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR
CENTRAL KS TO SEE SOME SNOW WOULD BE IN THE 12Z-15Z RANGE,
BEFORE THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES PUSH NORTHEAST. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE
TO SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE ONLY IMPACT THAT APPEARS POSSIBLE
WOULD BE REDUCED VISIBILITY ALONG I-70 SAT MORNING DUE TO THE
LIGHT SNOW COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS.
MOST NOTICEABLE IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WILL LIKELY BE THE
RAPID CHANGE IN MUCH COLDER AIR. NOT ONLY WILL MUCH COLDER AIR BE
SPILLING SOUTH ON SAT, STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS STILL
LOOKING TO BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS THEY STRUGGLE TO MAKE
IT ABOVE FREEZING.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE THAT WILL BE
DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN ON SUN AND THEN INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MON MORNING. IT IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO BRING MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TO
THE AREA COMPARED TO THE ONE ON SAT. THIS IS MAINLY BECAUSE A VERY
COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN BE IN PLACE, MAKING ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS
ALL SNOW. LAST FEW RUNS OF BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT OCCURRING IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE. AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE SNOW WOULD FALL IN THE 12Z
MON TO 21Z MON TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK OUT OF THE EAST AND
SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY WINDS
AT MOST SITES EXPECTED. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN AND LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS BY THE END OF
THIS TAF PERIOD WITH EVEN LOWER CEILINGS EXPECTED SATURDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...WI
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