016
FXUS63 KICT 281809
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1209 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY MORNING
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS FAVORABLE ON SATURDAY
- A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM HAS A 30-50% CHANCE FOR 1" OR GREATER
SNOWFALL TO AFFECT MAINLY CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FLEET-FOOTED UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS
WAVE WILL SPARK OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PREDICTED(STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS NOT ANTICIPATED). MEANWHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS SATURDAY MORNING WITH A DECENT
SIGNATURE FOR DEEPER ADIABATIC MIXING TAPPING INTO STRONGER WIND
SPEEDS ALOFT. THE SIGNAL FROM ECMWF EFI(INDEX 0.8 FOR WIND
SPEEDS) AND HREF MODEL SOLUTION HAS GREATER THAN 60% PROBABILITY
OF NORTHWEST WINDS SURPASSING 30MPH. THIS COULD RESULT IN A
WIND ADVISORY BEING HOISTED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
IN ADDITION, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
INTO THE THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EJECT FROM THE ROCKIES AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS KANSAS ON MONDAY. THIS WAVE WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A 30-50% CHANCE
OF 1" OR GREATER SNOWFALL AFFECTING MAINLY CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. DRY WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY- FRIDAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WITH REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES (LOW CIGS)
LIKELY BY THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING MAY GRADUALLY
LOWER INTO IFR/LIFR TOWARDS MORNING. WE EXPECTED SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO ALSO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AFTER 07-09Z, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
EAST OF I-135. A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD DEVELOP AT TIMES IN
CENTRAL KS ON SAT MORNING BUT HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
EARLY ON SAT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. SPEEDS OF 35-45
MPH WILL BE COMMON IN CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS ON
SAT.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...MWM
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