849
FXUS62 KILM 150011
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
711 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND INTO MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING GOOD
RAIN CHANCES AS IT MOVES THROUGH, AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
CURRENTLY, STRONG SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGING FROM QUEBEC
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION WITH A COASTAL TROUGH PARKED JUST OFF
THE COAST. RADAR IS SHOWING SHOWERS OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON, MOVING SOUTHEAST PARALLEL TO THE COAST. THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE, BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL VEER
WITH HEIGHT, AND THE FLOW WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5000 FEET. THIS
FLOW WILL INCREASE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF A SHOWER
ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOWER PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 TO THE MID- 40S ALONG THE COAST, WITH A FEW UPPER
40S AT THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 60S, WITH A FEW MID-60S READINGS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SLOWLY MOVING
OFF THE COAST. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS WELL, BUT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MODERATING MONDAY. WHILE THERE
IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR RAINFALL DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD,
THERE IS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE APPEARS
VERY LIMITED/CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS BY THIS TIME. IN THE
LEAST WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY SOME
SPRINKLES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ENSEMBLES DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN UNTIL A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES/MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES
WITH THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE, IT WILL LIKELY TURN MUCH COLDER
AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY
DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERALL, THE H5 PATTERN DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS ARE PUSHING INLAND THIS EVENING IN ONSHORE FLOW, AS
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS. NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN US.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND NIGHTTIME FOG
ARE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH
AND A LOW NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT AND
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY. WIND WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT BY THE END OF SUNDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
6 TO 8 FEET THIS EVENING AND REMAIN 6 TO 7 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK,
LINGERING COASTAL TROUGH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN NE-ELY FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS AOA 10 KNOTS. LIGHT/VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY WITH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW FINALLY TO WASH
AWAY THE OLD COASTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SC.Y CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD BET THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD SWELLS WILL
KEEP SEAS UP INITIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN DURING THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...CRM
MARINE...RH/SRP
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