105
FXUS62 KILM 151358
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
858 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND INTO MID
WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN LIKELY MOVE THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS WE OFFICIALLY KICK OFF WINTER.
UPDATE
AS OF 9 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE OTHER THAN FOR THE
REMOVAL OF THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES. THE OLD FRONT/COASTAL
TROUGH CONTINUES OFFSHORE WITH LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES PUSHING A
FEW OF THE WEAK SHOWERS TOWARD THE COAST. HRRR SUGGESTS A FEW OF
THEM COULD MAKE IT ONSHORE BEFORE DISSIPATING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WEDGING CONTINUES TODAY WITH SHOWERS OFFSHORE ALONG THE STATIONARY
COASTAL TROUGH. A STRAY SHOWER COULD REACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS FLOW TURNS SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY. LATEST
FORECAST HAS MAINTAINED POPS BELOW 10% ALONG THE COAST. DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE AND POOR PRESENTATION OF OBSERVED PRECIP TRENDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS SUPPORT THE ONGOING DRY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE TODAY, BUT THE STRONGER WEDGE AND
TYPICAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A NORMAL CAD APPEARS TO
BE SITUATED FARTHER WEST. THIS PUSHES ME AWAY FROM THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN FAVOR OF OUR TYPICAL BLENDS. WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN
COOL, SO ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST COULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE
UPPER 50S BUT THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S INLAND, UPPER 40S IN THE EASTERN COASTAL
PLAIN, AND AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS WEAKEN WITH THE WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTS:
*MOSTLY DRY W/ MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS:
EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILING, ALTHOUGH A TROUGH/STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE ALSO LOOKS TO
DEVELOP AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH TUE NIGHT. WHILE
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME, NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIG STORY THIS
PERIOD AS THEY'LL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL, UP TO THE MID 70S FOR SOME
ON TUE. RECORD HIGHS APPEAR TO BE SAFE THOUGH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGHLIGHTS:
*MAINLY DRY W/ ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH WED
*COOLER W/ INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU
*COLDER/DRIER STARTING LATE THU
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGH WED AND THU NIGHT-SAT
*LOW TO MODERATE WED NIGHT-THU
DETAILS:
A COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD LINGER OFFSHORE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, MOST LIKELY LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. A QUICK HIT OF HIGHER
MOISTURE/FORCING LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WE HAVE
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS
DON'T APPEAR TO BE TOO GREAT. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO STAY MINIMAL
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. COOLER/DRIER AIR
WILL THEN MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH IT FEELING MUCH MORE
WINTER- LIKE FOR THE OFFICIAL START OF WINTER ON SAT. TEMPS WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT, POSSIBLY ON THU AS
WELL DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BEFORE
FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CLEARING THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED AND BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST POSSIBLE. MVFR POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TO OUR NW. IF MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP, THEY SHOULD BE REPLACED BY VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG DESPITE REMNANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND NIGHTTIME FOG
ARE POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT/EARLY
THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
MAYBE EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WEDGING AND BREEZY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND WEAKENS AND MOVES OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE, THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN
NORTHERLY, FALLING TO 15-20 KNOTS BEFORE SUNSET. WINDS AND GUSTS
WILL FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TONIGHT, BUT LINGERING EASTERLY SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEAS IN EXCESS OF 6 FEET INTO MONDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER NEAR THE AREA
INTO MID WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT LIKELY MOVES THROUGH EARLY THU.
LINGERING 6 FT SEAS WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING
INTO MON NIGHT, AT LEAST FOR THE NC WATERS. WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MID WEEK BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
NOT QUITE REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THU.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SRP
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...21
MARINE...RJB/21
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