307
FXUS62 KILM 151700
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1200 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS
IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND INTO
MID WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN LIKELY MOVE THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE OFFICIALLY KICK OFF WINTER.
UPDATE
AS OF 9 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE OTHER THAN FOR THE
REMOVAL OF THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES. THE OLD FRONT/COASTAL
TROUGH CONTINUES OFFSHORE WITH LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES PUSHING A
FEW OF THE WEAK SHOWERS TOWARD THE COAST. HRRR SUGGESTS A FEW OF
THEM COULD MAKE IT ONSHORE BEFORE DISSIPATING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WEDGING CONTINUES TODAY WITH SHOWERS OFFSHORE ALONG THE
STATIONARY COASTAL TROUGH. A STRAY SHOWER COULD REACH THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS FLOW TURNS SLIGHTLY MORE
EASTERLY. LATEST FORECAST HAS MAINTAINED POPS BELOW 10% ALONG
THE COAST. DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND POOR PRESENTATION OF
OBSERVED PRECIP TRENDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUPPORT THE
ONGOING DRY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE TODAY, BUT THE STRONGER WEDGE
AND TYPICAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A NORMAL CAD
APPEARS TO BE SITUATED FARTHER WEST. THIS PUSHES ME AWAY FROM
THE COOLER GUIDANCE IN FAVOR OF OUR TYPICAL BLENDS. WATER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL, SO ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST COULD
LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 50S BUT THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LOCALIZED.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S INLAND, UPPER 40S IN THE EASTERN
COASTAL PLAIN, AND AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS WEAKEN WITH THE WEAKENING WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTS:
*MOSTLY DRY W/ MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS:
EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILING, ALTHOUGH A TROUGH/STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE
ALSO LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH
TUE NIGHT. WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME,
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE BIG STORY THIS PERIOD AS THEY'LL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL, UP
TO THE MID 70S FOR SOME ON TUE. RECORD HIGHS APPEAR TO BE SAFE
THOUGH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGHLIGHTS:
*MAINLY DRY W/ ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH WED
*COOLER W/ INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU
*COLDER/DRIER STARTING LATE THU
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGH WED AND THU NIGHT-SAT
*LOW TO MODERATE WED NIGHT-THU
DETAILS:
A COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD LINGER OFFSHORE UNTIL A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, MOST LIKELY LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. A QUICK
HIT OF HIGHER MOISTURE/FORCING LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WE HAVE ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME,
ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS DON'T APPEAR TO BE TOO GREAT. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO STAY MINIMAL BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH IT FEELING MUCH MORE WINTER- LIKE FOR THE OFFICIAL START
OF WINTER ON SAT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
WED NIGHT, POSSIBLY ON THU AS WELL DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL TO ROUND
OUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INITIALLY WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR IN PLACE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE ALONG
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE WEST WILL ERODE THE LINGERING
DRY AIR WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THE INLAND TERMINALS HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF SEEING THESE CONDITIONS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY MONDAY, GENERALLY AFTER 14Z. THE
WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA OFF THE COAST MAY APPROACH THE COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOSTLY
DISSIPATE AS THEY DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND NIGHTTIME FOG
ARE POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WEDGING AND BREEZY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND WEAKENS AND MOVES OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE, THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN
NORTHERLY, FALLING TO 15-20 KNOTS BEFORE SUNSET. WINDS AND
GUSTS WILL FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TONIGHT, BUT LINGERING
EASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEAS IN EXCESS OF 6 FEET
INTO MONDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER NEAR THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT LIKELY MOVES THROUGH
EARLY THU. LINGERING 6 FT SEAS WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING INTO MON NIGHT, AT LEAST FOR THE NC WATERS.
WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MID WEEK BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT QUITE REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THU.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SRP
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...RJB/21
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