763
FXUS62 KILM 160236
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
936 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR FRIDAY.
UPDATE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER WITH THE EVENING UPDATE
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
RIDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE HIGH NOW CENTERED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN DURING MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, A COASTAL TROUGH, JUST
OFFSHORE, CONTINUES TO HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA WITH IT.
THESE SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST BUT RUN INTO DRY
AIR AND DISSIPATE. A FEW MAY MAKE IT ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE FEAR. MOISTURE IN
THE LOW-LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND DEWPOINTS
NEAR CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROMOTE SOME AREAS OF FOG,
MAINLY INLAND LATER TONIGHT. ANY ST/FG WOULD PERSIST UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE DURING MONDAY. THE MODERATING RIDGE DURING MONDAY WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
WITHIN A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES OF 70F (NORMALS ARE 57-59F ACROSS
THE AREA).
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
CONTINUED DRY THIS PERIOD WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL
OFF TO THE EAST AND A SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH REMAINING OFFSHORE,
BUT WITHOUT ANY UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT OR INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES TO SUPPORT MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES. MAIN STORY
WILL BE THE RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...LOWS ONLY IN THE 50S
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
LOW/MID 70S (NOT QUITE AT RECORD LEVELS) UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
UPR-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY THIS
PERIOD, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS,
BUT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW WIDESPREAD THE RAIN WILL
BE WITH THE FRONT AS THERE'S NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
ASIDE FROM AT THE LOWER LEVELS. BEST CHANCES (50-60%) NOW ARE
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTN AND EVENING, WITH A SHARP DRYING TREND
THEREAFTER AS WINDS VEER TO THE WEST THEN NORTH. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THEN RETURN INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH A TREND BACK TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
POST FRONTAL CAA.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WITH INTERVALS OF LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
LOWER WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR BR
INLAND AND IN CRE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND NIGHTTIME FOG
ARE POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...THE PERSISTENT NELY FETCH CONTINUES TO YIELD 5
TO 7 FT SEAS ACROSS THE ADJACENT WATERS. THE EXCEPTION IS
LIKELY THE NEARSHORE WATERS OFF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE THE FETCH
IS BLOCKED. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF NEW ENGLAND CURRENTLY
RIDGES INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IN PLACE
JUST OFFSHORE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE AND THE
LINGERING RIDGE WILL ERODE THROUGH MONDAY. OVERALL, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING MONDAY W/ A SC.Y TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE SCA CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT DUE TO LINGERING 10-11 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL UP TO 6 FT,
WHILE WINDS WILL BE BELOW 10 KT. IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS
THEN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY 2-4 FT SEAS AND WINDS
STILL AOB 10 KT. NEXT COLD FROPA OCCURS EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE
WATERS, FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15-20 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
SYNOPSIS...MAS
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...MAS/SRP
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