021
FXUS62 KILM 160819
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
319 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE SURFACE MAP HASN'T CHANGED IN A FEW DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH AND EAST EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN THE
MID LEVELS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
THIS WILL ADD JUST A FEW DEGREES TO TODAY'S HIGHS COMPARED TO THEIR
PREVIOUS DAY COUNTERPARTS. THIS WILL FAVOR QUIET WEATHER AND MILD
TEMPERATURES. THE LEAST CERTAIN FACET OF THE FORECAST IS THE EXTENT
OF CLOUD COVER AS MOISTURE MAY HAVE TROUBLE MIXING OUT BENEATH AN
INVERSION SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ABOUT 6-8KFT. MOST GUIDANCE SEEMS FAIRLY
OPTIMISTIC THAT THIS DOES OCCUR BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
DAY SHIFT HAS TO TREND FORECAST A BIT MORE TOWARDS CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY WITH THE AID OF VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTS:
*MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
*GENERALLY DRY THROUGH TUE NIGHT W/ ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WED/WED
NIGHT
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS:
EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH THE LINGERING
COASTAL TROUGH BEING THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH WED NIGHT BUT LIKELY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD
KEEP RAIN AMOUNTS DOWN TO ABOUT A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FOR MOST
AREAS (HIGHEST GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST). HOWEVER, THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE FOR A BIT MORE RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RECORD HIGHS TUE/WED NEAR 80 INLAND STILL APPEAR TO BE SAFE
THOUGH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGHLIGHTS:
*MAINLY DRY AND COLDER W/ BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY STARTING FRI
NIGHT
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS:
A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING THROUGH EARLY THU WHICH WOULD BRING
AN END TO ANY LINGERING PRECIP PRETTY QUICKLY, ALTHOUGH SOME
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES AS
LATE AS THU EVENING DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG IT IS AND HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IS STILL AROUND. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE COULD MOVE
THROUGH FRI BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LIMITED SO NOT LIKELY TO SEE
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. TEMPS WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY COLDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD, FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING FRI NIGHT, MUCH BELOW SAT NIGHT
AND THEN EVEN MORESO SUN NIGHT WHEN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR AND SOME INLAND SPOTS COULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE TIMING AND
LOCATION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. THERE IS JUST ABOUT ZERO GUIDANCE,
FOR EXAMPLE THAT HAS ILM'S CURRENT DECENT TO 2 SM, THOUGH THIS
APPEARS CAUSED BY THE NEARBY SMITH CREEK. HAVE GONE A BIT MORE
PESSIMISTIC THAN PREV FCST AS MANY MODEL BLENDS NOW SHOW PREDAWN
IFR VSBY'S. VFR WITH LIGHT NE/VARIABLE WINDS SOON AFTER SUNUP.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND NIGHTTIME FOG
ARE POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... THE NE WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT FOR MANY
DAYS NOW HAS DIMINISHED TO UNDER 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER
ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT SWELLS CONTINUE AS SEAS ARE ALWAYS SLOWER TO
ABATE THAN WIND. THE CURRENT ADVISORY EXPIRATION TIME SEEMS A BIT
PESSIMISTIC. SIX FOOT WAVES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY RELEGATED TO
THE VERY OUTER PORTIONS OF THE 20NM FORECAST ZONES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF FUTURE SHIFTS CAN DETERMINE WHEN A FORECAST THAT INCLUDES
6 FT WAVES IS NO LONGER REPRESENTATIVE OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN THE
HEADLINE CAN BE DROPPED EARLY. RIGHT NOW THAT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN SEE IF THIS IS STILL
THE CASE, HOPEFULLY ABLE TO LOWER SCA ABOUT 12HRS EARLY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING WILL BE GIVING WAY
TO A PASSING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE EARLY THU. GENERALLY BENIGN
WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE TIME OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
COULD NEED A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE THU/THU NIGHT AS A
RESULT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
TODAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...RJB/MBB
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