425
FXUS62 KILM 170336
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1036 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT GRIDS BUT
OVERALL EXPANDING THE FOG COVERAGE AND AVIATION CONCERNS WERE
THE FOCUS. FOR MARINE CONCERNS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
*DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING*
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD AS OF THIS WRITING WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, ITS INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN
STEADFAST AS A LINGERING MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DRY
AIR SUPPORT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH ONLY PASSING THIN
CIRRUS OVERHEAD. NEAR THE SURFACE, A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT OR CALM
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE FACTORS, IN TANDEM WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S AND THE LENGTHY NIGHTS DECEMBER PROVIDES, ALL
POINT TOWARDS A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING, WITH DENSE FOG (<1/4 MILE VISIBILITY)
POSSIBLE. IN FACT, DEPENDING ON HOW EARLY IN THE NIGHT THIS
OCCURS, LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE MEASURED WELL-BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND ESPECIALLY LOW CLOUDS LIMIT TEMP FALLS.
THE TIME IT WILL TAKE TO BURN OFF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEPEND
ON ITS EXTENT AND DEPTH, BUT THIS SHOULD CLEAR BY MID-LATE
MORNING. AFTER A SLOW TEMP RISE IN THE EARLY MORNING, TEMPS
SHOULD RISE RAPIDLY AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF WITH WELL-
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-70S EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. OF COURSE, IF LOW
CLOUDS HOLD ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN HIGH TEMPS WOULD
END UP COOLER THAN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN THIS PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPR-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SLOWLY RISES IN SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT NOT ENOUGH FORCING
TO WARRANT HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (60-80%), MAINLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY, ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A BRIEF SURGE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH MEAGER
INSTABILITY, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A SHARP
DRYING TREND THEREAFTER FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE WEST THEN NORTH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
DRY WEATHER AND DECREASING TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE EASTERN CONUS.
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 60 ON FRIDAY WILL FALL TO THE 40S FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH WIND CHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT LIKELY
BEING THE COLDEST WE'VE SEEN THUS FAR THIS MONTH...WIDESPREAD
MID TEENS.
AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
OVERALL THE BR/FOG/RESTRICTION(IFR AND BELOW) LADEN FORECAST
REMAINS INTACT WITH FEW CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. I DID
ADJUST BR ONSET TIME A BIT EARLIER IN MOST SITES. THERE REMAINS
JUST ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO PRECLUDE TRANSITION OF THE
TEMPO/LOWER VISIBILITY GROUPS TO PREVAILING AT THIS TIME. THIS
COULD BE DUE TO A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE MID LEVELS
STREAMING BY AND OR A SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS FROM A DISTANT
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NIGHTTIME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONGOING
10-SEC EASTERLY SWELLS WILL DOMINATE THE WAVE SPECTRUM WITH
HEIGHTS SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING THE 2-4 FT
RANGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS AOB 10 KT AND 2-4 FT
SEAS. NEXT COLD FROPA OCCURS EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS,
FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KT, AS THE BETTER CAA AND GREATER SCA POTENTIAL
HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...MAS/ABW
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