423
FXUS62 KILM 171758
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1258 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING WILL BE GIVING WAY TO
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
FOG HAS FINALLY LIFTED AND TEMPS ARE RAPIDLY WARMING WHERE MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE THIN OR VACANT. LOWER PEE DEE AREAS ARE SEEING
MORE CLOUDS WHICH WILL TEMPER WARMING SOMEWHAT AND MAY LEAD TO
HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES SHY OF THE CURRENT FORECAST, BUT THESE CLOUDS
APPEAR TO BE MOVING ALONG ON SATELLITE, SO THE GOING HIGH TEMP
FORECAST SHOULD STILL BE VALID WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING PRETTY QUIET WEATHER ON TAP
FOR THE PERIOD. THE CURRENT COASTAL SPRINKLES NOT EVEN REPRESENTED
BY SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR SHOULD HAVE TROUBLE
LEADING TO MEASURABLE RAINFALL BUT WILL ADD SOME MINOR POPS IN THE
VERY NEAR TERM. THEY ARE ALSO PROGGED TO WASHOUT BY DAYBREAK AS
MIXING RAPIDLY ENSUES. THE HIGH THAT HAD BEEN TO OUR NORTH FOR SO
LONG WILL BE NO MORE, A LIGHT SWRLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS A RESULT.
GUIDANCE WAS NOT WARM ENOUGH YESTERDAY AND SO COULD SEE EVEN TODAY'S
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COULD BE ADJUSTED UP BY ABOUT 2 DEGREES.
TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE RATHER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A BIT MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ASSUMING THESE DON'T
AFFECT FOG DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO THIS MORNING PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED THRU A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT, BUT WITH VISIBILITY
BOUNCING AROUND AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION, POSSIBLY PRECLUDING AN
ADVISORY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTS:
*MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED NIGHT
*ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT, ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIMITED
*VERY LOW RISK OF A SEVERE STORM WED
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS:
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SHIFTING EAST WED MAKING IT TO NEAR THE
APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN OFFSHORE TOWARD DAYBREAK THU.
EXPECT GENERALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WED INTO WED EVENING BEFORE
THEY START DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST WED NIGHT. ALTHOUGH PWATS
SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR 1.3" THEY WON'T LAST LONG AND WON'T BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH SHOULD LAG WELL
TO THE WEST. HOWEVER, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LOW-MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN PLACE, ENOUGH FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ALONG
WITH LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
LARGE HAIL BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING THE SEVERE STORM
RISK. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE THU, LINGERING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD STILL SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR
THE COAST THROUGH THU NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE FALLING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL THU (POSSIBLY
PEAKING EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN NORMAL) AND THEN LIKELY STAYING
CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THU NIGHT DUE TO CONTINUING CLOUDS/WINDS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGHLIGHTS:
*MAINLY DRY W/ BELOW NORMAL TEMPS, ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS:
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY, POSSIBLY WITH
A FEW SPRINKLES, WITH THE COLD AIR INVASION STARTING FRI NIGHT
AS A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS SHOULD GET
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER EACH PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA.
COULD EVEN SEE SOME TEENS INLAND SAT NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUN
NIGHT WHEN THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE
VIS AND CIG RESTRICTIONS RETURN IN EARNEST DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED,
WITH LIFR TO VLIFR CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TO MAKE
MATTERS WORSE, A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT, WHICH WILL HELP TO WET THE GROUND
AND SUPPLY MORE EXCESS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR DENSE FOG DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
ENOUGH FOR EXPLICIT MENTIONS OF VLIFR RESTRICTIONS IN THIS
ROUND OF TAFS, AND THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING, IDEALLY BURNING OFF BETWEEN 15-17Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE PREVIOUSLY LONG ESTABLISHED HIGH TO
OUR NORTH NO LONGER IN CONTROL WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BE MINIMAL
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. A LIGHT SWRLY COMPONENT WILL TRY TO
DOMINATE DIRECTION-WISE AS SPEEDS STAY CAPPED AT 5-10KT. THE E
TO NE SWELL ENERGY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH STILL HAS SEAS
ELEVATED WELL ABOVE WHAT LIGHT WINDS WOULD OTHERWISE SUPPORT.
THIS WILL BE TRUE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD AND BEYOND.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WED AND MOVE THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS AND COOL OCEAN TEMPS COULD
PROMOTE SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE, WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE A
BIT PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT EVEN MORESO AFTERWARDS WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER THU/THU NIGHT. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FRI NIGHT LEADING TO ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS INTO EARLY SAT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RJB/MBB
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