723
FXUS62 KILM 180005
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
705 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING WILL BE GIVING WAY TO
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST THE LOCATION OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS THE ANTICIPATED BAND OF SHOWERS IS TRACKING A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, CLEARING SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO
EAST EXCEPT FOR PASSING THIN CIRRUS, WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
SUPPORTING THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, PARTICULARLY WHERE RAIN RECENTLY FELL. AN EXPANSION OF
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
THICKER HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE CWA BORDER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
*DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING*
AFTER A VERY FOGGY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, A
SIMILAR SETUP IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. ONE IMPORTANT FACTOR TO WATCH
IS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO BRING PASSING CLOUDINESS
AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE AND CAPE FEAR
REGIONS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WETTING OF THE GROUND
FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING (WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A CLEARING OF
THE CLOUDS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT) SUPPORTS THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-95 AT THIS JUNCTURE, WHERE CONFIDENCE
IN DENSE FOG IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME. THE ONE CAVEAT PREVENTING THE
INCLUSION OF THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IS THE DENSITY AND COVERAGE
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS OBSERVED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
WHICH MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD
DENSE (<=1/4 MI VISIBILITY) FOG. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED
TONIGHT AND AN EXPANSION INTO THESE AREAS IS QUITE POSSIBLE PENDING
OBSERVATIONS OF FOG IN THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, THE UNSEASONABLY HIGH
DEW POINTS AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND VERY LOW CLOUDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT LOW TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADY TREND AFTER THEIR INITIAL FALL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT; LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S ARE FORECAST.
ON WEDNESDAY, DENSE FOG SHOULD BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE, IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE IN MOST
AREAS. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, THE FOG AND THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD
TAKE UNTIL MID-LATE MORNING BEFORE IT BURNS OFF. HOWEVER, ONCE IT
DOES SO, RAPID WARMING IS EXPECTED AND HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
MIDDLE 70S AGAIN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WHERE A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW THE COOLER SHELF WATERS TO KEEP THE
BEACHES IN THE 60S AND ALSO WHERE MARINE FOG BANKS MAY BE PASSING
THROUGH INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THE FOG BURNING OFF, A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND SUN SHOULD DOMINATE THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TIME
PERIODS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSES OVERHEAD. SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES AND BRINGS BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH IT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH
THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. QPF WITH PCP LOOKS FAIRLY MINIMAL
WITH BEST CHANCES OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SHALLOW COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THURS, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURS AFTN. THIS
WILL BRING A CHC OF PCP WITH IT AND THEN COLDER AIR BEHIND IT.
INITIALLY, THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW WITH STEEP
INVERSION IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON
THROUGH AT LEAST THURS NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WED NIGHT, MORE LIKE THE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN THROUGH THURS AFTN INTO
EVEN, TEMPS WILL FALL OFF WITH THE HIGH OCCURRING EARLIER IN THE
DAY AND NOT BUDGING TOO MUCH THROUGH THURS. BY THURS NIGHT,
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE FREEZING AND MORE
LIKE CLOSER TO 40 WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS PREVENTING ANY TEMPS
FROM GETTING TOO COLD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DEEPER AND BROADER MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIG DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO FRI. AHEAD OF
IT, LOW CLOUDS WILL BE HANGING ON IN THE MORNING. ONCE THIS
CROSSES THE AREA AND SHIFTS OFF SHORE, DEEP CAA WILL BRING
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL SCOUR OUT ANY CLOUDS
AND BRING VERY CHILLY AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL DROP WITH INITIAL COLD FRONT ON THURS, BUT THIS
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS SHOULD HOLD UP
ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH, BUT STRONG CAA WILL BRING
TEMPS INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS SAT THROUGH MON. THE COLDEST DAYS
WILL BE SUN AND MON WHERE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S BUT WIND
CHILL TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40. AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO
MODIFY SLOWLY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND DOWN INTO THE
AREA AS A COASTAL TROUGH TAKES SHAPE BY LATE TUES.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST MUCH LONGER AT INLAND TERMINALS AS
WINDS GO CALM AMIDST MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH
DEW POINTS. LOW CLOUD COVER OVER THE COASTAL TERMINALS WILL EXIT
TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, ALLOWING FOR VIS AND
CIG RESTRICTIONS TO RETURN IN EARNEST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT AND WITH EVEN
HIGHER DEW POINTS, LIFR TO VLIFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD ONCE THEY DEVELOP AND CONTINUE WELL INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR VLIFR RESTRICTIONS, AND THESE
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING,
IDEALLY BURNING OFF BETWEEN 16-18Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
WATERS WITH ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE SUPPORTING SEA FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS AS A SIMILAR SETUP TO LAST NIGHT
ENSUES. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONCENTRATE THE FOG WHICH
DEVELOPS TONIGHT INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL HOLD IN THE 2-
4 FT RANGE WITH A LINGERING ESERLY SWELL AT 9-10 SECONDS DOMINATING
THE WAVE SPECTRUM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH INTO EARLY THURS. GUSTY N-NE WINDS POST FROPA COULD
SHOULD DRIVE SEAS UP LATE THURS MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS
PROMPTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GUSTS AND SEAS. LONG
DURATION NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH TO END SCA BY FRI
NIGHT WITH SEAS DROPPING OFF TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ099-105>110.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RGZ/ABW
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